A Colder Canadian Winter?

As Canada approaches winter, predictions indicate a significant shift from last year's record-breaking warmth. According to chief meteorologist Chris Scott from The Weather Network, this winter aims to "salvage its reputation" with expectations of a colder and more impactful season across the country.

Change from Last Year’s Warmth

After experiencing Canada’s warmest winter on record last year, forecasters are cautioning against a repeat performance. This year's seasonal forecast points towards a winter marked by colder temperatures, particularly in Western Canada, where residents can expect near or above-normal snowfall.

Predictions for Ontario and Quebec

Scott warns that Ontario and Quebec should brace for significant winter weather, particularly in December. “The cold that has settled over Western Canada is on its way east, and it’s going to pack a real punch,” he explained, signaling that a defensive strategy of acquiring winter tires and salt might be in order for winter enthusiasts and regular commuters alike.

Mid-Winter Conditions

The forecast suggests that after a colder spell in the coming weeks, January and February might offer a brief warm-up for Ontario and Quebec, with both provinces seeing above-average precipitation. However, colder, more typical winter conditions are anticipated for Manitoba and Saskatchewan, a welcome change for drought-stricken prairie farmers who depend on snowmelt to enhance soil moisture levels for early spring cultivation.

Impact on Ski Resorts

Alberta and British Columbia are expected to face the iciest conditions, with predictions of near- or above-average precipitation, which is promising news for ski resorts like Banff and Lake Louise, where an already settled snow base looks favorable for skiers and snowboarders heading into the new year.

Atlantic Canada’s Anomaly

In contrast, Atlantic Canada may experience a relatively drier and warmer winter, as storm patterns seem to be shifting towards the Great Lakes region, possibly reducing the frequency and intensity of winter storms in that area.

Trends in the Northern Territories

The northern territories are anticipated to follow trends seen further south, with Yukon and parts of the Northwest Territories experiencing below-normal temperatures, while Nunavut is forecasted to be warmer than usual.

Climate Change Context

Crucially, the context of climate change has introduced significant shifts in what "normal" means regarding winter conditions. The latest data indicates that average winter temperatures in Canada have warmed by approximately 3.6 degrees since 1948, a trend that has accelerated due to the effects of climate change.

El Niño and La Niña Effects

Last year’s unusually warm winter was partly driven by El Niño, a climate phenomenon linked to fluctuating sea temperatures in the Pacific. However, current predictions suggest that El Niño has waned, and its counterpart, La Niña, which usually results in colder conditions for the Prairie provinces, is yet to materialize.

Conclusion: A Winter Comeback?

Scott notes that La Niña’s elusive behavior could play a critical role in how winter unfolds across Canada. If La Niña ultimately emerges strong, we could see a fighting chance for a more robust winter than the previous one; if it stalls, temperatures could stay warmer in central and eastern Canada.

With all the complexities involved in seasonal forecasting, one conclusion is unequivocal: this year's winter weather is poised to be much more pronounced than last year, and Canadians should prepare for what lies ahead. Stay tuned and buckle up, winter is definitely on its way, and it’s ready for a comeback!