As we approach 2025, it’s not only Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government that’s hanging by a thread; the Alberta-first agenda, born under his leadership, is also in dire straits. Concerns are mounting about the efficacy and viability of this regional strategy as a shift in power dynamics unfolds in both Ottawa and Washington, D.C.

The upcoming year is poised to bring several challenges and opportunities for Alberta, forcing a reconsideration of key issues that have dominated the political conversation in recent times. The concept of the so-called “Alberta Agenda” has deeper roots, dating back well before Trudeau—its origins can be traced back to Trudeau’s father. Specifically, the Firewall Letter of 2001 has become a guiding document for figures like Premier Danielle Smith today.

However, the emergence of a new federal Conservative leader suggests that the aspirations highlighted in the Firewall Letter may once again be sidelined. While Trudeau’s controversial time in office fueled a demand for an Alberta-first strategy, it appears that his imminent departure will not bring any of these proposals to fruition.

Among the various initiatives proposed, the idea of establishing an Alberta pension plan initially garnered widespread support and seemed the most feasible. Unlike other ideas, such as the development of an Alberta revenue agency, which never gained traction, the notion of a provincial pension plan promised to deliver better benefits while reducing premiums—a compelling pitch for many Albertans.

But as Trudeau seems set to vacate his position, this once-promising initiative has lost momentum. Recent analyses from Canada’s chief actuary have further dampened the initial optimism, raising questions about the financial viability of such a plan. The skepticism surrounding the idea of Alberta claiming 53 percent of the Canada Pension Plan’s assets has also thrown a wrench into the situation, effectively signaling that this proposal may indeed be “dead in the water.”

The provincial government now faces a crucial decision—whether to pivot away from an increasingly unfeasible agenda or to double down on a vision that, as it currently stands, appears increasingly disconnected from reality. With a crossroads ahead, it is undoubtedly time for Alberta’s leadership to rethink its strategy in order to chart a more promising path forward in the face of changing political tides.

As Alberta grapples with its identity and future, residents and leaders alike will be watching closely to see how the province adapts to the rapidly evolving landscape. Will we see a revival of the Alberta-first spirit, or will it sink beneath the weight of its unmet ambitions? Only time will tell.