In today’s market roundup, analysts from National Bank Financial are sounding alarms for base metals companies, citing lower copper prices as a significant concern. With predictions of a decline in earnings as the third quarter approaches, expert analysts Shane Nagle and Ravi Nizami have adjusted their estimates downwards.

The average copper prices for Q3 2024 dropped to $4.23/pound, reflecting a 5.5% decrease from the previous quarter. This reduction is expected to lead to a 7.5% dip in EBITDA estimates across various companies analyzed in their report. As a result, they caution that lower guidance for 2024 is likely, particularly for companies affected by unplanned downtime and ramp-up delays.

Notable Stock Adjustments:

- **Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T)**: Upgraded target to **$90** from **$86**; current avg. is **$75.07**. Analysts are optimistic about improving throughput rates at QB2 later this quarter.

- **Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T)**: Target raised to **$16.75** from **$15.50**; the average price is **$15.94**. Management aims to process more stockpiles, which bodes well for Q4.

- **Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T)**: Target cut to **$31.50** from **$33**, despite an expected increase in production due to challenges in power availability and operational adjustments.

- **Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS-T)**: Increased target to **$32.50**, maintaining an outperform rating based on strong fundamentals.

- **Saputo Inc. (SAP-T)**: Downgraded to “market perform” from “outperform” with a price target of **$30** (down from **$35**), as analysts express concerns over its earnings trajectory due to dairy commodity volatility.

Airline Sector Willing to Bet on Recovery

Citi analyst Stephen Trent is optimistic about **Air Canada (AC-T)** now that pilots have ratified a new labor agreement. This event, coupled with decreasing competition in the aviation market due to Canada Jetlines' bankruptcy, positions Air Canada favorably for a return to profitability. The target price has been raised to **$21** with a "buy" recommendation, reflecting a strong potential for recovery in long-haul international flights.

Similarly, Scotia Capital's Konark Gupta has upped Air Canada's target to **$24**, emphasizing the positives gaining traction after the new pilot contract.

Analyst Ratings in Action

- **Canada Goose Holdings (GOOS-T)**: Downgraded to **underweight** from **equal weight** due to overexposure in the Chinese market and excessive inventory.

- **CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T)**: Upgraded to **outperformer** with a target of **$178**; strong growth outlook in government verticals and robust cash flow generation make it a solid choice.

- **Verticalscope Holdings Inc. (FORA-T)**: Downgraded to "neutral" following observed growth deceleration in web traffic.

Big Box Stores and Consumer Preferences

Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li bolstered his view on **Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T)**, maintaining his positive position and raising the price target to **$147** based on a recent pricing survey indicating strong consumer value perception despite a projected slowdown in same-store sales growth.

Closing Thoughts

As we delve deeper into earnings season, expect increased volatility across various sectors, particularly in commodities and aviation. Staying informed on analyst upgrades and downgrades can make a significant impact on investment decisions. Stay tuned for further updates as more companies report their Q3 earnings!