B.C. Election Update: NDP Surges Ahead of Conservatives in Latest Poll

As the countdown to the October 19th election continues, the British Columbia New Democratic Party (NDP) has made a significant move, reclaiming its lead over the British Columbia Conservative Party (BCCP) according to a recent Leger poll. This change comes after a month of shifting momentum, particularly following the decline of the B.C. United Party in late August.

The Leger survey, conducted online from October 3 to 7 among 1,002 British Columbians, reveals that 47% of decided voters now support the NDP compared to 42% for the Conservatives. This marks a notable turnaround from the previous poll ending September 30, which had the Conservatives leading by three points.

Steve Mossop, executive vice-president at Leger for Western Canada, pointed out that the NDP's resurgence is largely attributed to a "switcheroo" among critical demographic groups: women and younger voters aged 18 to 34. Historically leaning progressive, these groups had initially favored the Conservatives but seemed to have shifted back to the NDP, which saw a staggering 10-point increase in female voter support, jumping to 56%. On the other hand, Conservative support among women plummeted from 42% to 34%.

The trend among young voters mirrors this pattern, with NDP support growing to 50% compared to the Conservatives’ 38%, a stark reversal from the preceding weeks when the Conservatives held an eight-point advantage in this demographic.

Mossop noted that factors contributing to this shift may include recent controversies surrounding Conservative leader John Rustad, particularly his statement equating COVID-19 public health measures to the Nuremberg trials. Such remarks seem to have alienated progressive voters, prompting a retreat from Rustad’s party back to the NDP.

Additionally, the effectiveness of NDP attack advertisements, which have painted the Conservatives as a threat to healthcare funding, appears to resonate with voters prioritizing healthcare—a major concern in current discussions.

The poll indicates a slight decrease in undecided voters, down to 8% from 11% in early September. However, the movement appears to favor the NDP, propelling them to the top spot.

Despite the changing tides, approval ratings for party leaders have remained relatively stable, with David Eby of the NDP leading at 46%, followed by Rustad at 38%, and Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau at 36%.

As the election date approaches, Leger plans to release its final poll two days prior to the vote, expertly capturing the dynamic shift in public sentiment across British Columbia.

For anyone tracking the political landscape in British Columbia, this election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory with the populace becoming increasingly engaged in their part in shaping the future of their provincial governance. Will the NDP maintain their lead, or can the Conservatives bounce back in the remaining days? Stay tuned for what could be a dramatic finish to the campaign!