Finance

Hedge Fund Titan Warns: US Faces Catastrophe from Trump Tariffs!

2025-04-13

Author: Emily

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has raised alarm bells, suggesting that the United States could be on the brink of experiencing something "worse than a recession" due to the trade policies set by former President Donald Trump.

In a candid interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," the 75-year-old hedge fund mogul stated, "We are at a critical decision-making point and very close to a recession. If this situation isn’t handled correctly, we could face something far more dire."

Dalio explained that a recession typically involves two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, but warned that the current circumstances hint at a deeper crisis: a crumbling monetary order. He noted, "We are on track to see a transformation in our monetary structure because we can't sustain the current levels of spending."

His comments come on the heels of a turbulent week in global stock markets, significantly impacted by Trump's tariff policies, including a staggering 145% hike on Chinese imports. Dalio drew parallels between today's economic climate and that of the 1930s, highlighting the potential for substantial shifts in both domestic and global systems.

"History has a way of repeating itself. Consider the interplay of tariffs, growing debt, and their impact on existing power structures. These elements can lead to severe disruption. How we manage these changes could either result in a catastrophic downturn or a recovery," he cautioned.

The investor, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, emphasized that the US economy is at a crucial crossroads. He suggested that if the national budget deficit could be curbed to around 3% of GDP, rather than the projected 7%, along with proper management of trade deficits, the situation could be navigated more effectively.

Dalio made a passionate appeal to lawmakers to adopt what he dubbed the "3% pledge." He warned that failure to do so would exacerbate supply and demand issues regarding debt, leading to outcomes "worse than a typical recession."

When asked whether he believed Trump's tariffs are exacerbating the complex challenges facing the world, Dalio acknowledged the need for manufacturing growth and job creation in the US. However, he stressed that the approach taken—whether pragmatic and stable or chaotic and disruptive—will critically influence the outcome.

In a time when markets and economies are in flux, Dalio’s sharp insights serve as a stark reminder of the critical decisions ahead.