Introduction

A startling new poll indicates that Quebec Premier François Legault's approval ratings have plummeted so low that his party could potentially lose a significant number of seats in the provincial legislature if an election were held today. Philippe J. Fournier, the mastermind behind the polling aggregator 338Canada, reveals that Legault's popularity has now dipped below that of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose approval stands at around 30%.

Poll Results

According to a recent Pallas Data poll conducted for 338Canada and L'Actualité magazine, a staggering majority of Quebecers believe Legault should resign before the next provincial election, slated for 2026. Only 20% of respondents express satisfaction with his performance—a shocking downturn considering he once enjoyed immense support.

Expert Insights

In an insightful interview, Fournier noted, “Not long ago, we had a Premier who could almost walk on water. Now, the confidence he once had with many voters in Quebec is utterly broken.” The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which Legault co-founded in 2011, won an impressive 90 out of 125 seats in the 2022 elections but now faces a grim future as it trails behind the sovereigntist Parti Québécois in the polls.

Satisfaction Levels

Fournier expressed astonishment at the low satisfaction levels. "Twenty percent is incredibly low for a party that won 90 seats just two years ago," he stated. "Typically, when a premier or prime minister faces such numbers in their second mandate, there's often no recovery."

Public Sentiment

The poll results reveal that 53% of participants are against Legault seeking a third term, with this sentiment resonating across all age groups and regions in Quebec. Interestingly, the 33% who want him to remain may include those from rival parties, such as the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberals, who perceive him as vulnerable.

Political Context

Fournier draws parallels between Legault and Trudeau, both former powerhouses who have seen their fortunes falter amid the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. “The post-pandemic world is destabilizing, even as inflation eases," Fournier remarked. "It's a time when incumbents tend to be blamed for public discontent."

Controversial Decisions

Critics point to a controversial decision made by Legault last year to cancel plans for a commuter tunnel between Quebec City and its southern suburbs as the event that precipitated his decline in popularity. After losing a byelection in Quebec City, the government proposed reviving the project, but the damage to Legault’s reputation was already done.

Backlash

Legault's government has also faced backlash for other contentious decisions, including a recent plan to spend up to $7 million to entice the Los Angeles Kings to play pre-season games in Quebec City. Critics believe that, while Canadians nationwide may view Ottawa as a source of blame for inflation, Quebecers' ire is squarely directed at their provincial government.

Future of Legault's Political Career

Fournier warns that if current poll numbers persist, Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec may find itself in single-digit territory, a fate that could pave the way for a crushing defeat. He speculates that without a shift in public opinion, Legault may either voluntarily step down or be forced out.

Legault's Plans

Despite his waning popularity, Legault has maintained that he plans to run again in the 2026 elections. Political analyst Antonine Yaccarini suggests that external pressures, such as potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian products, could provide a platform for Legault to unify leaders across the country and reshape his image.

Challenges Ahead

However, Yaccarini also warns that Legault's impulsive responses to negative press—like his abrupt decision earlier this year to stop accepting party donations amid controversy—might reflect poorly on his leadership. She argues for a more focused and disciplined approach moving forward.

Conclusion

Looking ahead, both Yaccarini and Fournier acknowledge that the political landscape in Quebec could drastically change if Legault were to step aside, as he is seen as the architect of the CAQ. The upcoming leadership race for the Quebec Liberal Party adds another layer of uncertainty to the province’s political future.

The Pallas Data poll, conducted via phone interviews with 1,093 adults last week, has a margin of error of three percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The results signal a pivotal moment for Legault and the CAQ, raising questions about the future of Quebec's political dynamics. Will Legault weather the storm, or is his political career nearing its end? Stay tuned as developments unfold!