Introduction

In a remarkable turn of events in the Canadian political landscape, young voters are showing greater support for conservative parties than their older counterparts. According to a recent Leger poll, 47% of voters aged 18–34 are backing the Conservative Party, outpacing the 45% support from those aged 35–54 and only 41% among voters over 55. This trend is unprecedented in Canadian history and highlights a significant ideological shift that contrasts with traditional patterns observed in other Western nations, where younger individuals typically lean toward progressive agendas.

Young Voter Trends in B.C.

As the British Columbia provincial elections approach, this youthful conservative trend is manifesting at the regional level. In the B.C. elections, young voters under 34 years show 47% support for the B.C. Conservatives, while only 39% favor the NDP. In stark contrast, older voters over 55 show a preference for the NDP at 48%, with only 43% supporting the Conservatives.

Historical Context

Historically, there have been instances where young voters have gravitated towards conservative parties, as seen in the landslide victories of the Progressive Conservative Party in the late 1950s and mid-1980s. However, never before have we seen a situation where the average 21-year-old in Canada holds more conservative views than a typical 65-year-old.

Global Comparison

What makes this shift even more intriguing is Canada’s departure from the global norm. In countries like the United States, the U.K., and Australia, young voters continue to lean towards progressive politics. For instance, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris holds around 60% of the under-30 vote in the U.S., while in the U.K., only 17% of young voters under 24 supported the Conservative Party during the last general election.

Reasons Behind the Shift

So, why are Canadian youths trending conservative? The answer appears to be rooted in pressing economic and social challenges. Canadian youth face skyrocketing housing prices; the OECD reports that homes in Canada are more unaffordable relative to incomes than nearly anywhere else, leaving many feeling there's little chance of homeownership. In the past year alone, rental prices have surged by over 20%, further burdening financially-strapped young Canadians.

Moreover, young people bore the brunt of the economic fallout from COVID-19, witnessing unemployment rates soar above 25% during the pandemic. This economic crisis has led to long-term consequences, with experts warning of 'scarring'—a phenomenon where career prospects and incomes fail to recover fully after such a significant downturn.

On top of economic woes, many young Canadians are grappling with severe healthcare shortages, particularly a lack of family doctors, affecting their well-being and ability to plan for the future. With around four million Canadians without a family doctor, the impact is disproportionately felt by those under 35.

Another layer complicating the current landscape is the influx of temporary immigrants flooding the job market, contributing to a jobless rate among those aged 15-24 rising to 14.2%—an alarming increase that has led to pervasive frustrations for young job seekers.

Furthermore, young Canadians have witnessed a decline in living standards compared to their peers in other developed nations. This decline has led many to realize that their current government, representing a coalition of the Liberal Party and NDP, has not adequately addressed their concerns, leading to growing support for the Conservative Party.

Similar Trends in Europe

This sentiment echoes across the ocean too, with recent European elections showing a similar trend. In France, the far-right National Rally managed to attract 32% of the under-34 vote, while in Germany, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) successfully engaged 17% of young voters—numbers that illustrate a broader shift towards conservatism related to economic strife and social issues.

Looking Ahead

As Canada moves towards the next federal election, this trend raises crucial questions about the future of its political landscape. Will young Canadians, feeling disillusioned and politically alienated, continue to support conservative policies that resonate with their immediate economic realities? Only time will tell if this marks the beginning of a profound realignment in Canadian politics, one that could reshape the identity of the nation for generations to come.

Conclusion

Stay informed about this evolving story and more by subscribing to the First Reading newsletter.