Recently, former U.S. President Donald Trump made headlines once again with his comments on Canada’s dairy tariffs, asserting that they exceed 200%. While this statement is technically correct, it glosses over significant details that are critical to understanding the real situation.

One of the critical points Trump omitted is that these steep tariffs only activate once the U.S. surpasses a certain threshold of duty-free dairy exports to Canada— a threshold that, according to U.S. dairy industry representatives, has yet to be reached. In fact, in several categories, especially milk, American exports are lagging far below the zero-tariff limit.

As Al Mussell, a Canadian agricultural trade expert, pointed out, “In practice, these tariffs are not actually paid by anyone.” This means that the high tariffs are more of a nominal deterrent than a practical impediment.

In a statement that raised eyebrows, Trump claimed that the tariffs had been “well taken care of” by the time he left office, attributing any subsequent increase to President Biden. However, the reality tells a different story. Official Canadian government documents and industry consensus confirm that there was no increase in tariffs under Biden. The tariffs that Trump criticized were established under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a trade deal he himself negotiated and implemented in 2018.

In recent statements, Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on Canadian dairy products, with the expectation that these retaliatory measures will materialize on April 2. However, this timeline raises questions about the effectiveness and implications of such actions.

Despite negotiations yielding some concessions from Canada, such as a promise to allow a limited amount of dairy imports without tariffs in 14 categories—including milk, butter, and cheese—Canada did not remove its high tariffs on dairy imports exceeding those quotas. Consequently, U.S. dairy farmers still face significant barriers when trying to access the Canadian market.

It is also important to note that while Canadian dairy policy is contentious, it represents a small fraction of the overall agricultural trade. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has noted that the vast majority of U.S. agricultural exports to Canada face no tariffs, illustrating that the Canadian market remains essential for many other American agricultural products. In fact, Canada is the second-largest export market for U.S. agricultural goods, with U.S. exports climbing to around $28.4 billion in 2024, including approximately $1.1 billion in dairy.

As the debate surrounding tariffs and trade continues, it’s clear that simplistic narratives often miss nuanced realities. Trump’s comments may capture attention, but they risk oversimplifying the complexities of trade relations between the U.S. and Canada. While the battle over dairy tariffs remains a hot topic, it is important for stakeholders to focus on comprehensive solutions that facilitate trade rather than escalating tensions.

In conclusion, as the trade landscape evolves, both nations must navigate these complexities to foster a fair and prosperous trading environment. Understanding the full picture is vital for consumers and policymakers alike, beyond the headlines that often dominate news cycles.