The 13-year civil war in Syria has catapulted back into the spotlight with a stunning rebel offensive that has seen the capture of Aleppo, one of the nation's largest cities and a historic commercial hub. This unexpected resurgence marks one of the most significant advances for the opposition in years, amid a conflict that has caused destabilization not just within Syria, but around the globe.

Historically, Aleppo has been a focal point in the Syrian conflict. The last major assault on the city came in 2016, when a gruesome air campaign orchestrated by Russian forces enabled President Bashar Assad to regain control of the area. With Assad presently managing around 70% of Syria, the rebel factions, led by the extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), initiated a two-pronged attack last week, not only targeting Aleppo but also pushing into the Idlib region and Hama province.

In direct response, the Syrian military has swiftly reinforced its ranks and conducted air strikes to curb the rebels' advance. This escalation raises serious concerns of reopening violent fronts in a Middle East already rife with tensions, particularly as U.S.-backed Israel continues its conflict with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria, has attributed the rebels' newfound momentum to a significant increase in Israeli strikes against Syrian and Iranian-aligned targets over recent months. He notes that Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah last week may also have provided a strategic opening for the Syrian opposition. Additionally, Russia, Assad's principal ally, is heavily engrossed in its war in Ukraine, diverting its attention away from the Syrian conflict.

Why the Aleppo Offensive Matters

The implications of renewed fighting in Aleppo are enormous. The civil war has claimed an estimated half a million lives since beginning in 2011, initially sparked by the Arab Spring uprisings against entrenched dictators. Assad's brutal crackdown transformed a peaceful protest movement into a violent struggle, leading to the exodus of 6.8 million Syrian refugees and subsequently altering the political dynamics in Europe.

Today, the remaining 30% of Syria — not under Assad's grip — is occupied by a hodgepodge of opposition forces and foreign military presences. The United States maintains approximately 900 troops in northeastern Syria to counter any resurgent threats from the Islamic State. The volatile situation is compounded by Turkish forces in Syria and the frequent strikes conducted by both the U.S. and Israel against Assad’s military and Iranian-backed militia.

This recent escalation in Aleppo signifies a potential pivot point in the conflict. Charles Lister, an analyst with the Middle East Institute, emphasizes that if Syrian government forces cannot maintain control, the ramifications could be profoundly impactful. There is a distinct risk that the violence could signal a resurgence of the Islamic State, even though it is currently believed not to have direct involvement in the current fighting. The group has a history of exploiting chaos and could potentially reactivate its sleeper cells in response to upheaval.

An additional worry is the prospect of escalating confrontations involving Russia and Turkey, with both nations having their own strategic interests to protect in Syria. If these two powers become embroiled in direct conflict, the situation could spiral into a larger regional crisis.

Who is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?

HTS, the group spearheading the Aleppo offensive, has long been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the UN. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, emerged in the early days of the conflict as the head of al-Qaeda's Syrian branch. His involvement was initially unwelcome among moderate opposition factions, who wished to keep their fight free from extremist influences.

Over recent years, Golani has made efforts to reshape HTS's image, promoting a civilian government in the territory it controls while simultaneously maintaining a military posture. In a significant shift, HTS severed its ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 and has attempted to project a more moderate image, even allowing for the resumption of Christian Mass in Idlib, an encouraging sign amid the chaos.

However, HTS continues to face scrutiny, as it harbors other militant groups within its territory and has previously engaged U.S. special forces in clashes.

The Historic Significance of Aleppo

Aleppo has boasted a storied history as a prominent center of trade and culture in the Middle East for millennia. Once home to 2.3 million residents, the city's strategic importance made it a vital battleground in the civil war. Rebels initially seized the eastern quarter in 2012, marking a pivotal victory for the opposition.

In 2016, the tide turned dramatically under a relentless siege led by Assad's forces with Russian backing, leading to widespread destruction and mass suffering, forcing rebels to surrender. With the Russian military's intervention serving as a turning point in the war, Assad solidified his grip on power.

In recent months, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo have targeted Hezbollah’s weapon stockpiles among other strategic locations, underscoring the complex and multifaceted nature of the ongoing conflict.

As the fight for Aleppo intensifies, the world watches with bated breath—what will the next chapter hold for Syria and its tangled web of alliances and enmities? The implications could be far-reaching, and only time will reveal the fate of this war-torn nation.