As President-elect Donald Trump gears up to take office once more, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over both the United States and Russia concerning the ongoing Ukraine war. Will Trump uphold America's commitment to Ukraine, or initiate a dramatic shift in relations with Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin?

Trump has hinted at a willingness to engage in negotiations with Russia, expressing empathy for their concerns over NATO's eastward expansion during a news conference on January 7. Many in Russia are hopeful that Trump's return may accelerate a resolution to the ongoing conflict. Lawmaker Vladimir Dzhabarov even characterized Trump as "someone with whom you can talk."

Nevertheless, emotions within the Kremlin are tempered this time around. The jubilation witnessed during Trump's previous election victory has been replaced by a somber realization of his past decisions, which saw increased sanctions against Russia and military support for Ukraine. Tatiana Stanovaya, of the R.Politik consultancy, emphasized that the atmosphere is now “much more sober,” with officials preparing for potential escalation or proposals for peace negotiations, though expectations for concrete terms remain low.

Diverging Views on Resolving the Conflict

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently dismissed suggestions from Trump’s team for a peace plan that included Ukraine conceding territory and deferring its NATO aspirations for 20 years. Lavrov firmly stated that Moscow is “not satisfied” with such proposals, indicating significant differences in the understanding of the war's underlying issues between Washington and Moscow.

Ilya Budraitskis, a historian and social scientist, noted the stark contrast in perspectives. While Trump appears to approach the conflict from a geopolitical standpoint involving borders, the Kremlin sees it as a challenge related to the broader European security architecture and influence in the post-Soviet landscape.

The situation is also contingent on Ukraine's resolve and ongoing military resistance. The dynamics surrounding the Ukrainian elections and the country's capacity to withstand Russian advances will play crucial roles in determining the conflict's trajectory far more than Trump's potential proposals.

Russia's Economic Landscape Amidst the Conflict

The Russian public's sentiment towards the war appears cautiously optimistic, with a recent Levada poll indicating that 75% of Russians support continued military actions, while a smaller percentage believes nuclear weapons could be justifiable under certain circumstances. Interestingly, over half favor discussions for an end to hostilities.

However, the economic reality for the average Russian remains troubling. While the military sector has driven economic growth—estimated at 4% year-over-year in 2024—this growth excludes much of the civilian population, particularly state employees and pensioners, who have seen their purchasing power diminish due to inflation, which hit 9% in the past year.

For many, like Elena, a pensioner from St. Petersburg, rising grocery prices are a near-daily concern. Meanwhile, experts warn that the war's toll on other sectors is concerning. Russia is adapting to sanctions by selling oil to countries like China and India, but reliance on this revenue is precarious, especially as Trump vows to ramp up U.S. oil production, which may depress global oil prices and profit margins for Russia.

Recent sanctions imposed by the outgoing Biden administration target Russia’s oil sector and the networks supporting it. Analysts express mixed feelings; Oleg Kouzmin believes even a minor thaw in U.S.-Russia relations could stabilize markets and create breathing room for the Russian economy.

As clarity surrounding the Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Russia relations remains elusive, the world watches closely, poised for the next developments that may bring peace—or escalate tensions further. With so much at stake, every decision made by Trump and his administration will be scrutinized eagerly by both allies and adversaries.