In the wake of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's surprising announcement to resign, the federal Canadian Liberals are gearing up for an intense leadership race. A newly released poll by Ipsos for Global News sheds light on the potential candidates who could garner favor with the electorate and lead the party, which remains in power even amidst a prorogued Parliament.

The Ipsos polling surveyed a representative sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older, focusing on their perceptions of various candidates speculated to run for party leadership. The results indicate who might resonate with voters as Trudeau's successor.

Potential Candidates

Leading the pack is Chrystia Freeland, the former deputy prime minister and finance minister. Despite her recent unexpected resignation, she has captured a positive impression from 29% of respondents. Interestingly, 24% indicated they would be very or fairly likely to support the Liberals under her leadership—an encouraging sign for a party seeking to regain traction.

Trailing Freeland is Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, who has been a topic of speculation as a potential leader. The poll reveals that 17% of Canadians hold a positive impression of Carney, with an equal percentage willing to vote Liberal if he were at the helm.

The list of potential contenders doesn’t end there. Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly follows with a positive impression from 15% of respondents, while former B.C. premier Christy Clark and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc secure 12% and 11%, respectively. Notably, LeBlanc announced Wednesday that he would not pursue the leadership.

Other candidates like Transport Minister Anita Anand and Innovation Minister Francois-Phillippe Champagne garnered less favorable impressions, each below 10%.

Voter Sentiment

The poll further indicates that among current Liberal voters, Freeland leads with a commendable 67% positive impression, followed by Carney at 53% and Joly at 48%. However, despite these favorable impressions, a significant concern looms over the party's future. A staggering 86% of Canadians believe that even with new leadership, the Liberals would face challenges in the next election. An additional 77% voiced that Trudeau's resignation comes too late for the party’s revival.

Current Party Support

Current party support, as highlighted by Ipsos, shows a preference shift toward the Conservatives, who now hold a 46% support rating, a rise of two points. The Liberals remain stagnant at 20%, while the NDP has dropped four points to 17%.

As discussions unfold among Liberal caucus members about the next steps in their leadership race, the national party board is tasked with forming a leadership vote committee. The establishment of rules and organization for this pivotal race is expected to take some time.

The coming weeks will undoubtedly be crucial for the Liberal Party as they look to redefine their leadership and strategy in a shifting political landscape—can they bounce back, or will they continue to struggle? Stay tuned as the drama unfolds!