A Pivotal Decision Ahead of Game 3

As the Toronto Maple Leafs gear up for Game 3 against the Ottawa Senators, coach Craig Berube faces a tantalizing dilemma: stick with a winning formula or make strategic changes to a lineup that currently leads the series 2-0.

Winning Doesn’t Always Mean Perfect

Typically, winning coaches opt to keep their roster unchanged. Berube is pondering this route, yet he admits, "I haven’t made my mind up yet." However, there are compelling reasons to consider adjustments as the series transitions to Ottawa.

The Senators Dominate Five-on-Five Play

Despite the Maple Leafs' two-win lead, the Senators have outperformed them in five-on-five situations, outshooting the Leafs by an astounding 50 attempts (127-77). Toronto has capitalized where it counts, scoring five goals to Ottawa's two, largely due to the brilliant play from goaltender Anthony Stolarz, who boasts a .957 save percentage compared to Linus Ullmark's .848.

Strength in the Top Lines, But Issues Below

Toronto’s first and fourth lines have been effective and should remain unchanged. It’s the middle of the lineup that raises eyebrows. While Max Domi's third line clinched the overtime winner in Game 2, they faced difficulties overall, winning just 31% of expected goals in critical minutes.

Potential Changes in the Middle

With the luxury of matchup control in Game 3, Senators coach Travis Green is likely to exploit the Leafs' weaknesses. The Domi-led unit struggled against Ottawa’s top players, a pattern that may continue unless changes are made.

Could Holmberg be the Answer?

One potential adjustment is to reinsert Pontus Holmberg into the third line for added defensive stability. Despite his mixed results earlier in the series, his presence with Tavares and Nylander often produces positive outcomes.

A Test for Pacioretty?

Another intriguing option is the seasoned Max Pacioretty. Berube foresees him as a crucial player, and this might be the perfect moment to integrate his size and physicality into the lineup. Imagine a forward group featuring Pacioretty alongside Tavares and Nylander—an enticing prospect.

Time to Consider Robertson's Role?

If changes are to occur, Nick Robertson might be the odd one out after his lackluster performance and costly penalty in Game 2. With only one shot in the series, his effectiveness has been limited. Utilizing Pacioretty could amplify the offensive zone presence that the Leafs desperately need.

Balancing Risks and Rewards

While the thought of altering a winning roster is daunting, it could be the key to solidifying their lead in this series. My suggestion? Sit Robertson, slot Pacioretty in, and create a more balanced middle lineup.

A Fork in the Road for the Leafs

Up 2-0, the temptation to stick with what has worked is strong. But as the series heats up, a strategic shake-up may just provide the Maple Leafs with the edge they need to keep the Senators at bay.