In the realm of NCAA basketball during March Madness, the mantra is always "survive and advance." However, for the Alabama Crimson Tide, ranked No. 2 and a strong title contender, recent performances have unveiled cracks in their armor. After a less-than-stellar struggle against an undersized Horizon League team, doubts loom over their capability to compete effectively against the formidable St. Mary's Gaels, the No. 7 seed and champions of the West Coast Conference.

Matchup Overview:

No. 2 Alabama (26-8, SEC 3rd) vs. No. 7 St. Mary's (29-5, WCC 1st)

Spread: Alabama -5.5 KenPom Rankings: St. Mary's: 22 (59 offense, 7 defense, 360 tempo) Alabama: 6 (4 offense, 34 defense, 1 tempo) St. Mary’s roster boasts a distinctive height advantage, including a starting frontcourt featuring players at 6’10” and taller. This physical presence allows them to dominate the boards, ranking fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding. Their disciplined and methodical play style often leads to offensive rebounds and second-chance points, emphasizing the need for Alabama to box out effectively and limit these opportunities.

Defensively, St. Mary’s excels at contesting shots without overcommitting to risky turnovers, showcasing one of the best floor defenses in college basketball. Their strategy involves forcing tough shots and then securing the rebound, making it a challenge for Alabama to find rhythm if they can’t convert efficiently on their possessions.

Key Players to Watch:

St. Mary’s Senior PG Marciuolionis: Not only leads the team in assists but is also integral in facilitating scoring opportunities, accounting for a third of all Gael baskets. Paul Murauskas (PF/C): The Lithuanian forward leads the team in rebounding and provides both offensive and defensive stability. Mitchell Saxen (C): Offers a reliable presence, contributing to defensive efforts while being a key playmaker.

While St. Mary’s team chemistry and execution can be top-notch, they do have weaknesses to exploit. Surprisingly, their shooting from the perimeter leaves something to be desired, positioning Alabama in a favorable spot if they can tighten their own defense and capitalize on transition opportunities.

Prediction and Conclusion:

This match promises to test the limits of Alabama’s roster depth, especially concerning their injured players. If the Crimson Tide can leverage their offensive efficiency and counter the Gaels' rebound dominance, they stand a chance to advance. However, Alabama's struggles with discipline and interior defense pose significant challenges against a team like St. Mary’s that thrives on precision and patience.

Ultimately, the Tide is favored to win by a narrow margin of 5.5 points according to FanDuel, with an expected final score of Alabama 72, St. Mary's 65. Nonetheless, for Alabama to emerge victorious, they must avoid the pitfalls of complacency and initiate a disciplined approach to the physical demands of this clash.

Tune in to witness this high-stakes matchup at 5:10 PM Central time on Sunday, March 25, broadcast on TBS. It’s do or die for the Tide—will they rise to the occasion?