Finance

Alarm Bells Ring: Hedge Fund Titan Predicts US Faces ‘Something Worse Than a Recession’ Due to Trump Tariffs

2025-04-13

Author: Wei

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is sounding the alarm! He believes the U.S. may be on the brink of experiencing a downturn far more severe than a recession, all thanks to Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies.

In an eye-opening interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, Dalio expressed his grave concerns: “Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. But if this situation isn’t managed prudently, we could plunge into something much worse.”

Dalio outlined that a typical recession involves two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, he stressed that the current financial climate is deeper than this obvious indicator. He warned, "We are witnessing a significant breakdown of the monetary order which, if not addressed, could lead us into uncharted waters.”

His comments come on the heels of a tumultuous week for global stock markets, exacerbated by Trump’s unprecedented tariff hikes, including a staggering 145% increase on Chinese imports. Dalio urged listeners to pay attention to the profound shifts occurring within both domestic and international economic structures, drawing parallels to the even more turbulent times of the 1930s.

“History has a way of repeating itself,” Dalio noted, emphasizing the disruptive nature of tariffs, rising debts, and challenges to established powers. He cautioned that if these issues aren't handled correctly, the fallout could go beyond a typical recession.

Dalio, known for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis, stated that the U.S. economy is currently at a vital juncture. He proposed that if the budget deficit could be reduced to 3% of GDP, the economic landscape could be reshaped positively. However, he threatened that without significant changes, we might face a calamitous 7% deficit.

He passionately urged Congress members to commit to what he dubbed the “3% pledge,” explaining that neglecting this pledge could create serious supply and demand issues surrounding debt, leading to consequences that may be “worse than a normal recession.”

When asked whether Trump’s tariffs are intensifying the myriad challenges facing the global economy, Dalio acknowledged the need for U.S. manufacturing and job creation. However, he emphasized the importance of executing this plan effectively: "The method of implementation—whether through practical, stable negotiations or chaotic disruptions—will make all the difference.”

As markets remain volatile and the shadows of economic uncertainty loom larger, Dalio’s warnings underscore a critical need for careful leadership in navigating what could be an unprecedented economic storm.