A shocking new study has found that up to 2.9 million children and adults could die from HIV-related causes by the year 2030 due to significant cuts in international aid from countries like the United States and the United Kingdom. Researchers emphasize that a resurgence of the HIV epidemic would have “devastating consequences” worldwide, estimating that these funding reductions could lead to an alarming rise of between 4.4 million and 10.8 million new HIV infections over the next five years.

The research, published in the esteemed Lancet HIV journal, highlights that the expected cuts could engender a six-fold increase in new infections among at-risk populations when compared to scenarios where funding levels remain stable. Dr. Debra ten Brink from Melbourne's Burnet Institute, who co-led the study, warned, “Decades of progress made in the battle against HIV could be unraveled.”

This study is the first to systematically analyze the potential impact of reduced funding from principal donors, projecting a steep 24% decline in global international funding for HIV by 2026. Currently, the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands account for a staggering 90% of international funding for HIV, yet all have announced or implemented plans to decrease their overseas aid contributions.

One notable resignation highlighting these cuts was Anneliese Dodds, who stepped down as the UK’s international development minister in response to a controversial decision to lower the aid budget from 0.5% of gross national income to just 0.3% over the next two years. Since 2015, these overseas donors have contributed about 40% of the essential HIV funding in low and middle-income countries, with the US traditionally serving as the largest benefactor. Earlier this year, the US signaled a near-total halt to spending on critical projects, including many supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar), which has already led to disruption in essential HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services globally.

Utilizing a sophisticated mathematical model based on data from 26 countries, the study predicts a worst-case scenario where an immediate cessation of Pepfar support, combined with broader cuts and lack of mitigation strategies, could result in an additional 770,000 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths by 2030—a grim return to levels not witnessed since the early 2000s.

Dr. Rowan Martin-Hughes, another co-lead author of the study, stressed that sub-Saharan Africa could experience an even greater crisis, with vital prevention initiatives, such as condom distribution and the provision of preventive drugs, being the first to be discontinued. He stated, “This disruption in testing and treatment programs could cause a surge in new HIV infections, especially in regions where substantial progress has been made, like preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV and reducing pediatric HIV deaths.”

Ten Brink asserted the urgent need for securing sustainable financing to avert a resurgence of the HIV epidemic, which poses threats not just to sub-Saharan Africa, but globally. The research team is calling for innovative financing strategies and the integration of HIV services into broader healthcare systems.

Campaigners are encouraging immediate re-evaluation of aid reduction plans, with Anne Aslett from the Elton John Aids Foundation emphasizing, “This report underscores the critical and urgent need for donors to acknowledge the far-reaching impact of their choices to cut aid budgets. If funding for the global HIV response diminishes to the extent projected in this report, millions more people will fall ill, and existing health budgets will struggle to cope.”

The stakes have never been higher. With millions of lives at risk, it is imperative for global leaders and policymakers to prioritize HIV funding before it’s too late!