Finance

Amazon Faces Analyst Downgrade as Cloud Business Proves Insufficient for Future Growth

2024-10-07

Author: Ming

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) saw its shares dip 1.4% in premarket trading on Monday, following a surprising downgrade from Wells Fargo Securities. Analyst Ken Gawrelski expressed concerns that Amazon's margins are under pressure, suggesting that the company’s growth in the cloud computing sector may not be enough to offset these challenges.

Gawrelski downgraded Amazon's stock from 'overweight' to 'equal weight' — an uncommon move for a stock that is usually favored by Wall Street. He notably slashed his price target for Amazon, bringing it down from $225 to $183, making it one of the lowest targets on Wall Street. Despite this current pullback, Amazon shares have increased by 23% this year, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index, which gained 19%.

In his analysis, Gawrelski pointed out that although Amazon has enjoyed upward revisions in projections in the past, he believes that significant pressure may prevent these revisions from continuing in the near future. He indicated that while the market is bracing for a potential decrease in operating income for the fourth quarter, any expected margin growth could be limited well into the first half of 2025. Visibility into better estimates is constrained until Amazon releases its outlook in July 2025.

While the Amazon Web Services (AWS) sector, known for its profitability, is seen as a long-term positive, Gawrelski warns that it alone cannot sustain Amazon’s overall growth trajectory. This sentiment is echoed by Bloomberg Intelligence, which predicts that AWS may experience a sales growth acceleration of 20% in 2025, driven largely by generative AI despite concerns over current AI-related expenditures.

Despite recent issues, Amazon remains a favorite on Wall Street, with approximately 94% of analysts maintaining a buy rating on the stock. The consensus price target of around $219 suggests an 18% upside potential for investors over the next year.

As the tech landscape evolves, particularly with rising interests in artificial intelligence and cloud services, investors will be keen to see how Amazon navigates these challenges and whether it can bolster its margins while sustaining growth in its celebrated AWS division.

In conclusion, while Amazon has historically been a powerhouse in e-commerce and cloud computing, the recent downgrade may signal a pivotal moment for the company as it faces scrutiny over its strategy in an increasingly competitive market.