Introduction

Auroras, often described as nature's most magnificent light show, are truly a sight to behold. However, catching a glimpse of these ethereal displays requires being in the right location during optimal conditions.

Aurora Forecast

To keep you updated on the chances of witnessing the northern lights, we present a comprehensive aurora forecast. This live blog will provide insights into ongoing geomagnetic activity, anticipated auroral visibility based on your location, and significant solar events that could intensify auroral displays. Key indicators to follow include coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and coronal holes, both of which can unleash powerful solar winds conducive to stunning auroras.

What You Should Know

The Kp index is crucial for aurora visibility; higher readings suggest stronger geomagnetic activity.

The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field plays a pivotal role, where a strong “south” Bz value promotes interaction with Earth's magnetosphere, increasing the likelihood of auroras. When energetic particles from the sun collide with Earth's atmosphere, they produce the vibrant colors we associate with auroras.

Today’s Aurora Forecast: Thursday, Nov. 21

Tonight's prediction shows relatively quiet auroral activity with a maximum Kp of around 2, which runs from approximately 7-10 p.m. EST (0000-0300 GMT on Nov. 22). While Kp readings of 2 are not exceptionally high, it represents a moderate improvement over recent forecasts.

Lucky regions above the Arctic Circle may have a chance to witness these celestial wonders, particularly due to a coronal hole that has been present on the sun. Although this coronal hole has decreased in size, it could still generate solar wind streams that engage with Earth's magnetosphere and create beautiful aurora displays.

Looking ahead, tomorrow's forecast suggests potential improvement with maximum Kp levels forecasted around 3. Still, any significant solar events, particularly CMEs, could greatly enhance aurora visibility. Often associated with solar flares, CMEs can create dramatic shifts in geomagnetic conditions once they reach Earth.

Current Solar Activity Predictions

M-class solar flare probability: 50%.

X-class solar flare probability: 10%.

Possible Aurora Sightings Earlier This Week

On Wednesday, Nov. 20, despite a predicted Kp of around 1.7 from 7-10 p.m. EST (0000-0300 GMT on Nov. 21), many high-latitude regions, especially locations above the Arctic Circle, could still witness the northern lights. Additionally, a significant coronal hole directed at Earth may provide some auroral blessings.

Earlier this week, on Nov. 19, similar conditions persisted with chances of spotting the northern lights, influenced by the ongoing solar activity with a maximum Kp of around 2.

The sun appears to be experiencing a period of increased activity. Following a period of relative quiet, it has unleashed several M-class solar flares. The emergence of a new sunspot group may also yield a powerful solar flare—potentially leading to striking auroras in the nights to come.

Conclusion

Keep your eyes on the sky and stay tuned for updates on solar activity that could drastically change aurora forecasts. If conditions align, tonight could showcase the northern lights in all their glory—a breathtaking experience that should not be missed!