Introduction

In a dramatic escalation of an already tense situation, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has directly accused Russia of being responsible for the recent crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet, demanding that Moscow take full accountability and compensate the victims' families.

The Incident

During an interview with Azerbaijan's national broadcaster, President Aliyev expressed outrage at the vague apology offered by Russian President Vladimir Putin just a day prior, asserting that such a statement is woefully inadequate if the two former Soviet states wish to maintain friendly relations. "We can clearly say today that the plane was shot down by Russia," Aliyev stated emphatically, underscoring his government's stance on the incident.

Details of the Crash

The Embraer 190 aircraft was en route from Baku to Grozny when it encountered significant navigation issues and, according to Azerbaijani government reports, suffered impact from external objects, leading to its tragic crash in Kazakhstan. Of the 67 passengers aboard, 38 lost their lives, with a majority being Azerbaijani nationals.

Accusations and Demands

Azerbaijani officials, alongside U.S. experts, have raised suspicions that the aircraft was likely targeted by a Russian air defense missile, a claim that Moscow has firmly denied. President Aliyev's statements mark his strongest rebuke to Russian officials yet, as he laid out three key demands: an official apology, admission of guilt, and punishment for those accountable.

Russia's Response

Putin's apology, as acknowledged by both nations, only touched on the acknowledgment that the incident occurred within Russian airspace, falling short of any admission of responsibility. During the aftermath, Russian defense forces were reportedly engaged in countering a potential Ukrainian drone attack near the Grozny airport, although Ukraine has not confirmed any involvement in the incident.

Criticism of Russia

Aliyev has criticized the slow and evasive response from Russia, which initially attempted to deflect blame by citing fog or bird interference. “Unfortunately, for the first three days, we heard nothing from Russia except for some absurd theories,” he remarked.

Historical Context

In light of these allegations, analysts believe that Aliyev's firm stance stems from his own past actions when Azerbaijan accepted responsibility and offered reparations following the shooting down of a Russian military helicopter in 2020, which resulted in the deaths of two servicemen.

Implications for Azerbaijan-Russia Relations

As tensions rise, questions loom about the implications for Azerbaijan-Russia relations moving forward. Azerbaijan has notably maintained a neutral stance amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, benefiting from increased trade with Moscow, while also asserting its interests in the Caucasus region during a time of Russian distraction.

Potential Resolution

Interestingly, some experts speculate that Putin could resolve the current stakes with Aliyev, with whom he shares a long-standing relationship, by negotiating a private agreement, potentially mitigating the need for public accountability. However, such a resolution might instigate long-term resentment among the Azerbaijani populace toward Russia, possibly shifting public opinion against Moscow.

Future of Azerbaijani-Russian Relations

At present, the Kremlin has yet to publicly respond to Aliyev's pointed demands, leaving the future of Azerbaijani-Russian relations hanging in the balance.