Nation

Chinese Stocks Surge into Bull Market: A Stimulus-Driven Comeback

2024-09-30

In an extraordinary turn of events, Chinese stocks have surged into a bull market following an astonishing nine-day rally fueled by government stimulus measures. The CSI 300 Index soared by 8.5% on Monday, its largest increase since 2008, as investors flocked to take advantage of the opportunities presented by a recovering market.

After losing over 45% of its value from peak levels in 2021 to mid-September, the index has rebounded by more than 20%, marking its entry into a technical bull market. This remarkable upswing is particularly notable as it coincided with the holiday period, suggesting a significant shift in investor sentiment.

The catalyst for this renewed optimism comes from recent policy changes in three of China's largest cities, which have relaxed regulations for homebuyers. Additionally, the central bank's decision to lower mortgage rates has further incentivized investment. These developments are part of a broader stimulus package that also entails interest rate cuts and increased liquidity support for the stock market, indicating a robust commitment from authorities to stabilize and invigorate the economy.

Investors are increasingly hopeful that this momentum will be sustainable, as the combined turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached approximately 2.6 trillion yuan ($371 billion) on Monday—a record high that underscores the frantic trading activity. Many believe that the market was highly oversold previously, and the current revival could be a sign of lasting recovery.

Local brokerages have reported unprecedented demand, with some experiencing order processing delays and a surge in new trading accounts being opened. This activity highlights the high level of interest from retail investors, who are rapidly shifting their outlook after an extended period of bearish sentiment.

Brokerages led the charge, particularly Citic Securities Co., which hit the 10% daily upside limit, while nearly all stocks in the CSI 300 reported gains. Notably, a Bloomberg Intelligence index of Chinese property developers surged by up to 15.7%, signaling optimism in a sector that has been under pressure for a prolonged period.

This exuberance in the Chinese stock market is having a ripple effect globally. Hedge funds are reallocating their investments by selling off U.S. tech stocks in favor of commodities, with iron ore prices jumping nearly 11% as investors anticipate increased demand driven by China's efforts to alleviate its real estate issues.

However, the enthusiasm has also led to volatility in the bond markets, with China's ten-year sovereign bonds experiencing their largest weekly decline in a decade as investors shift their focus to riskier assets.

The "Fear and Greed Index" for the Shanghai Composite Index, a measure of market sentiment among retail investors, has reached its highest level since 2020, indicating widespread optimism.

In conclusion, with policymakers showcasing a renewed resolve to tackle economic challenges after several years of uncertainty, analysts believe the current bullish trend may not only sustain but could usher in a more stable economic landscape for China. As David Chao from Invesco Asset Management aptly puts it, "a new direction has been charted," potentially setting the stage for a transformative period for the world’s second-largest economy.

Stay tuned for further updates as this story develops!