As we enter NFL Week 17, football fans and fantasy players alike are gearing up for an exciting finish to the season, with games kickstarting on Christmas Day. Here’s your essential guide, packed with projections, matchup analyses, and critical fantasy advice to navigate the week.

Projections and Key Matchups

This week's fantasy guidance is tailored for 12-team PPR leagues, providing recommendations for player sit/start decisions, waiver wire additions, and lineup choices.

Key Games to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Score: Chiefs 23, Steelers 21

Over/Under: 43.3

Win Probability: Chiefs 57%

Lineup Locks: George Pickens, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce

Hollywood Brown's recent use in the Chiefs offense raises intrigue, but fantasy managers should tread lightly due to his inconsistent role amid stiff competition among receivers.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans

Projected Score: Ravens 27, Texans 19

Over/Under: 45.9

Win Probability: Ravens 77%

Lineup Locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers

With Tank Dell out, keep an eye on Dalton Schultz as a potential TE1 against a defense that's struggled against tight ends.

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

Projected Score: Seahawks 21, Bears 20

Over/Under: 41.2

Win Probability: Seahawks 56%

Lineup Locks: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore

D’Andre Swift's decline in production will have fantasy owners questioning if he’s worth a start with his recent struggles.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

Projected Score: Chargers 24, Patriots 20

Over/Under: 44.2

Win Probability: Chargers 62%

Lineup Locks: Ladd McConkey

Kayshon Boutte’s impressive game last week was a highlight, but consistency remains a concern for the rookie.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected Score: Bengals 24, Broncos 22

Over/Under: 46.2

Win Probability: Bengals 57%

Lineup Locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase

Despite a strong matchup, the Broncos’ backfield remains a foggy committee, making it a risky choice to invest in any RB here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Projected Score: Rams 25, Cardinals 24

Over/Under: 49

Win Probability: Rams 57%

Lineup Locks: Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp

Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to disappoint fantasy players despite his potential, marking him as a boom-or-bust candidate.

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Projected Score: Bills 31, Jets 21

Over/Under: 52.8

Win Probability: Bills 83%

Lineup Locks: Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson

Dalton Kincaid is becoming a conundrum with a high target share but low production; proceed with caution.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Projected Score: Packers 23, Vikings 21

Over/Under: 44.6

Win Probability: Packers 57%

Lineup Locks: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones

Sam Darnold has found his groove, ranking high in fantasy points, but a tough matchup awaits him.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

Projected Score: Raiders 21, Saints 16

Over/Under: 36.6

Win Probability: Raiders 66%

Lineup Locks: Brock Bowers

Watch the Saints’ backfield closely as they adjust to Alvin Kamara's absence.

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants

Projected Score: Colts 21, Giants 14

Over/Under: 34.4

Win Probability: Colts 73%

Lineup Locks: Jonathan Taylor

Keep an eye on Tyrone Tracy Jr. as he is now on your RB2 radar with consistent scoring.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Score: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 19

Over/Under: 49.8

Win Probability: Buccaneers 85%

Lineup Locks: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans

Baker Mayfield’s resurgence positions him as a top QB option against a vulnerable Panthers defense.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Score: Jaguars 23, Titans 21

Over/Under: 44.5

Win Probability: Jaguars 57%

Lineup Locks: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley

Chig Okonkwo is becoming a valuable asset as he rises in fantasy rankings through consistent performances.

Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns

Projected Score: Dolphins 24, Browns 15

Over/Under: 38.5

Win Probability: Dolphins 79%

Lineup Locks: Tyreek Hill, David Njoku

Jerome Ford is making waves in the absence of Nick Chubb, but fantasy managers should remain cautious about over-reliance.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Score: Eagles 27, Cowboys 15

Over/Under: 41.9

Win Probability: Eagles 88%

Lineup Locks: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown

The defense-centric game is palpable, and Rico Dowdle’s value could fluctuate based on game flow against a stout Eagles defense.

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders

Projected Score: Commanders 25, Falcons 21

Over/Under: 45.7

Win Probability: Commanders 65%

Lineup Locks: Bijan Robinson, Terry McLaurin

Michael Penix Jr. will face tougher circumstances in this matchup, affecting the overall offensive output from both offenses.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers

Projected Score: Lions 29, 49ers 21

Over/Under: 44.5

Win Probability: 49ers 54%

Lineup Locks: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brock Purdy

Patrick Taylor Jr.'s performance needs to be assessed closely as the 49ers adjust their strategy.

Fantasy Outlook: This week is critical for fantasy managers looking to secure playoff spots or clinch their league titles. Assess your lineups carefully, keep an eye on injuries, and be ready for last-minute adjustments. Happy holidays and may your fantasy dreams come true this week!