As the excitement for the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament gears up, fans and analysts alike are buzzing about the potential for shocking upsets. Historically, major upsets have been somewhat of a rarity in the women's bracket, but as past tournaments have shown, surprises can happen—sometimes when you least expect them.

In 2023, there were notable upsets, echoing a similar sentiment seen the previous years. Analyses from models like "Giant Killers" focus on potential surprises in the bracket system where any significant deviation between seed numbers can lead to unforeseen results. For example, a No. 10 seed defeating a No. 7, or a No. 6 beating a No. 3.

Here’s a look at 10 games projected to be upset-alerts in the first round of this year's tournament, including potential outcomes based on the available analytics:

1. (10) South Dakota State vs. (7) Oklahoma State

Upset Chance: 32.6% South Dakota State’s track record showcases their capability in the tournament, and with standout player Brooklyn Meyer, who has been a scoring machine, they pose a threat against Oklahoma State.

2. (10) Harvard vs. (7) Michigan State

Upset Chance: 24.2% Hotshot Harmoni Turner leads Harvard’s charge, making them a formidable opponent against a Michigan State team that may struggle with Harvard's defensive prowess.

3. (12) Fairfield vs. (5) Kansas State

Upset Chance: 6.5% Kansas State has faced challenges this season due to injuries. If Fairfield can capitalize on their 3-point shooting, they may close the gap and upset the high-seeded Wildcats.

4. (11) Murray State vs. (6) Iowa

Upset Chance: 14.7% With the fastest pace of play, Murray State thrives on scoring and could exploit any defensive weaknesses during their matchup against Iowa.

5. (7) Vanderbilt vs. (2) Duke

Second Round Prediction If both teams win in their respective first rounds, the upcoming clash will be a battle of offense versus defense, with Vanderbilt's high-scoring players ready to challenge Duke’s strategic gameplay.

6. (11) Iowa State vs. (6) Michigan

Upset Chance: Depends on the First Four results Iowa State’s Audi Crooks is a standout who could dominate the matchup, but they must first navigate the First Four successfully.

7. (7) Louisville vs. (2) TCU

Second Round Prediction Despite their youth, Louisville has a history of performing well in the NCAA tournament. The pressure will be on TCU's veteran players to prove themselves in potentially tight games.

8. (12) Green Bay vs. (5) Alabama

Upset Chance: 7.5% Green Bay's strategic play style could catch Alabama off guard, making this matchup another watch for those fans seeking an upset.

9. (11) George Mason vs. (6) Florida State

Upset Chance: 18% George Mason's recent momentum could be influential, and if they can contain Florida State's top scorer, they may just pull off a historic upset.

10. (11) Washington vs. (6) West Virginia

Excitement looms as Washington enters the tournament ready to take on a strong West Virginia team. This matchup could very well hinge on the performances of key players on both sides.

As the tournament kicks off, these matchups promise thrilling basketball action and the potential for darting underdog victories. Fans should prepare for a rollercoaster of emotions as March Madness unfolds! Keep your eyes on these games – you might just witness history in the making!