Thanksgiving 2023: Low COVID-19 and Flu Rates in California Raise Questions About Vaccination Efforts

As Thanksgiving approaches, Californians are gearing up for family gatherings, and it seems attendees have less to worry about in terms of COVID-19 transmission. Experts report that the current levels of the virus are considerably low compared to previous years, bringing a sigh of relief to many.

Dr. John Swartzberg, a clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases at UC Berkeley, emphasizes the positive news: "The bottom line is that we’re in a very, very good place at this moment." This optimism is supported by Santa Clara County's wastewater testing, which suggests minimal viral activity in the region.

According to data released by California's public health department, respiratory viruses, including RSV and influenza, are showing low but rising activity levels. However, COVID-19 remains low across the state as of mid-November. The latest respiratory virus update indicates an increase in influenza and RSV positivity rates, while COVID-19 metrics—such as hospitalizations and deaths—continue to decline.

Interestingly, Dr. Swartzberg points out that a late summer wave of COVID-19 may have contributed to increased immunizations, which could explain the current subdued virus levels ahead of the winter season, known for its influx of respiratory illnesses.

Despite the lowered risk, the reality remains stark: COVID-19 is still claiming lives daily. Since the start of the respiratory virus season on June 30, a staggering 1,691 Californians have succumbed to the disease, compared to 49 deaths from influenza and 10 from RSV. Parents also face tragic news, as three pediatric deaths from COVID-19 have occurred this season alongside one death from the flu.

In light of these statistics, public health officials continue to stress the importance of vaccinations, particularly for the vulnerable population segments at higher risk for severe illness. However, growing skepticism about the COVID-19 vaccine complicates these efforts. A change in strategy seems to be emerging, focusing more on engagement and understanding rather than the conventional promotion of the vaccine.

Vaccination rates indicate a slight increase compared to last year, with 18% of eligible individuals in Santa Clara County having received the updated COVID vaccine—a rate significantly higher than the statewide average of 9.6%. However, the flu vaccine has seen a more robust uptake, with 30% of eligible residents already vaccinated this season.

Dr. Sara Cody, the Santa Clara County health officer, acknowledged this improvement while highlighting that strategies aimed at promoting higher vaccination rates are evolving. "Our strategies are changing away from telling and more to listening and understanding," she stated during a panel discussion last week.

As families prepare to gather together this holiday season, the combination of lower virus levels and ongoing public health initiatives offers a measure of reassurance. However, as COVID-19 remains a persistent threat, the conversation around vaccination continues to be critical in ensuring the health and safety of all Californians.