Introduction

As Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon approaches its second week and the country’s conflict stretches into its second year, the pressure for a ceasefire is mounting. This past Thursday night, an airstrike over Beirut raised alarm, particularly after UN peacekeepers were injured for the second consecutive day by Israeli military fire.

Current Military Operations

A new military offensive is currently underway in Jabalia, northern Gaza, despite widespread calls for an end to hostilities. With Israel’s allies urging restraint amid heightened tensions with Iran following a recent ballistic missile attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears resolute in pursuing his agenda, guided by three pivotal factors: the events of October 7, his longstanding leadership, and the dynamics of U.S. foreign policy.

Background Context

Back in January 2020, a significant moment transpired when Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was assassinated at Baghdad airport in a drone strike ordered by then U.S. President Donald Trump, aided by Israeli intelligence. Soleimani, head of Iran’s Quds Force, was considered one of Iran's most powerful military figures. Although Netanyahu praised the strike, he envisioned the repercussions of Israeli involvement could provoke a large-scale conflict with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah.

Shift in Israeli Strategy

Fast forward to this year, Netanyahu has demonstrated a shift in approach. In April, he ordered Israeli airstrikes against Iranian positions in Syria, resulting in the deaths of Iranian generals. By July, he greenlit the targeted killing of Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, in Beirut. These actions have not gone unnoticed; according to sources, President Biden was reportedly outraged, emphasizing that Israel was viewed increasingly as a “rogue state” on the world stage.

Impact of October 7, 2023

The backdrop of these military operations is the traumatic aftermath of October 7, 2023, a day marked by unprecedented violence and a military intelligence failure that has shifted public sentiment and political dynamics in Israel. Most notably, it has emboldened Netanyahu's government to adopt a more aggressive stance.

Domestic and International Reactions

Historically, Israeli military campaigns have concluded after a few weeks, usually due to U.S. insistence for a ceasefire. However, the ferocity of Hamas' attack and its impact on Israeli society will likely prolong this conflict. Reports of significant civilian casualties in Gaza have emerged as a sensitive issue for the Biden administration, significantly complicating its political landscape as it provides substantial military aid to Israel.

Political Dynamics in Israel

It is crucial to recognize that Netanyahu's current approach is not occurring in a vacuum; there is substantial pressure from within Israel’s political framework to adopt a hardline stance against groups like Hezbollah and Iran. Calls for a ceasefire from the U.S. and France were met with criticism domestically, indicating a broad consensus favoring continued military engagement.

Changing Perceptions of Threats

Ultimately, the attack on October 7 has reshaped Israel’s perception of threats. The once-guarded tolerance for risks posed by Hezbollah, which includes stated plans to invade northern Israel, is now seen as an immediate reality. Gone are the previous red lines that would have restricted military action—Netanyahu is now positioned to act with fewer constraints.

Escalation of Hostilities

This escalation is reflected in the recent uptick in hostilities, with both sides unleashing significant military capabilities: Hezbollah has launched over 9,000 projectiles at Israeli cities, while Israel has directly targeted senior Iranian and Hezbollah leadership. This atmosphere of mutual escalation, coupled with the lessons gleaned from past conflicts, has created an unprecedented environment for risk assessment in Israeli military strategy.

Future Implications

Looking forward, how will Netanyahu navigate this precarious landscape? The question linger as increasing complexity and the high stakes of the ongoing conflict continue to unfold on the ground. As the situation develops, the world watches closely, grappling with the implications not only for regional stability but for U.S.-Israel relations in an ever-evolving geopolitical context.