Introduction

In November, the much-anticipated third runway system at Hong Kong International Airport officially commenced operations, following the earlier debut of the third runway in 2022. Despite the euphoria surrounding its launch, skepticism lingers over the need for this costly enhancement, especially after an older runway was closed for maintenance during the previous two years, raising questions about the urgency of the project.

Official Celebrations vs. Skepticism

Nevertheless, the official celebrations characterized the third-runway system as a possible 'game-changer' for Hong Kong, positioning it as a premier international aviation hub. Prominent news outlets, like the South China Morning Post, echoed this sentiment, with some commentators heralding the system as a bridge to new economic opportunities that promise to rejuvenate the city's future.

Fiscal History of the Project

However, this infrastructural development is rooted in a complex fiscal history. The Capital Works Fund, a financial legacy from the colonial era, restricts government revenues from land sales to infrastructure projects only. As this arrangement persists, the natural inclination towards grandiose and expensive ventures may have taken hold, reminiscent of past initiatives that ultimately led to underutilized assets—often referred to as 'white elephants.'

Financial Justifications and Critique

The financial justifications surrounding the third runway are noteworthy. Economic forecasts predict astonishing benefits of HK$455 billion spread over half a century. Critics argue these projections are speculative at best, as evidenced by the ominous words of economist J.K. Galbraith: 'The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.'

Tourism Impact