Turkey's Growing Influence in Syria

In the tumultuous aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's exit from the Syrian political landscape, Turkey stands out as a key benefactor, significantly amplifying its sway over the diverse factions now governing much of Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long been a pivotal player in the Syrian conflict, aligning with opposition forces that ultimately forced al-Assad to flee his capital. This deliberate buildup of connections with Syrian rebels has facilitated an expansive arena for Turkey’s economic and political engagement. According to Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, Turkey's growing influence is both undeniable and multifaceted. She points out that while Syria may be poised for further conflict among rival factions, there is no question that Turkey’s role will continue to expand.

Turkey's Position vs. Russia

Moreover, Turkey's ascendance has appeared to undermine Russia’s traditional dominance in the region—Moscow, alongside Iran, was previously one of al-Assad's staunchest allies. Observers now speculate whether Russia will retain its military foothold along Syria’s Mediterranean coast amidst this changing landscape.

Turkey's Diplomatic Move Post-Damascus Fall

In the initial stages of the rebellion’s advances, Turkey maintained a measured public stance. However, upon the rebels entering Damascus, Erdogan expressed optimism about their trajectory: “The target is of course Damascus. Our hope is for this march in Syria to proceed without incidents.”

Just days after the fall of Damascus, Turkey promptly moved to reinstate its diplomatic presence, shuttered for over a decade, by dispatching a temporary chargés d’affaires to the capital. This strategic appointment allows Turkey to maintain diplomatic ties without outright acknowledging the rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), that led the charge, which Turkey classifies as a terrorist organization due to its extremist roots.

The Cautionary Tale of Erdogan and al-Assad

Erdogan’s rapport with al-Assad tells a cautionary tale of volatile alliances. Prior to the Syrian civil war, Turkey and Syria enjoyed a period of warmth, marked by trade agreements and diplomatic visits. However, the Arab Spring ignited a rift, leading Erdogan to pivot from ally to adversary as he vocally condemned al-Assad’s violent crackdown on dissenters in 2011.

Turkey's Humanitarian Response and Military Presence

In response to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, Turkey has taken in over three million Syrian refugees and has established a presence in northern Syria, creating a buffer zone to protect them. It also plays a crucial role as a facilitator of a Turkish-backed rebel force known as the Syrian National Army, helping to tackle threats perceived from Kurdish forces.

Turkey's Complex Relationship with HTS

Turkey’s relationship with HTS is particularly notable. While labeled as terrorist by multiple nations, including Turkey itself, Ankara has adeptly forged channels of cooperation, leveraging its influence to shape HTS’s governance strategies. Gonul Tol, the director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish program, argues that Turkey’s history with the group positions Ankara uniquely to gain from the end of the Assad regime.

Despite the perils of the ongoing conflict, Turkey has shown a will to mediate between HTS and local communities, even prompting the group to temper its extremist stances in earlier public statements by its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

Turkey's Diplomatic Rhetoric and Regional Role

As Turkey solidifies its role in shaping the future of Syria, it has also intensified its diplomatic rhetoric on the international stage. The Turkish Foreign Ministry recently issued a statement reaffirming support for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, while condemning recent Israeli incursions into Syrian territories—a move highlighting Turkey’s commitment to play a significant role in regional geopolitics.

Conclusion: Turkey's Strategic Positioning

As events continue to unfold in Syria, Turkey’s strategic positioning and its evolving influence over the rebel factions will be pivotal, possibly reshaping alliances and power dynamics in the region for years to come.