From Rising Star to Struggling Pitcher

Last year, Grant Holmes was nothing short of extraordinary. With an impressive 85 ERA- and stellar K/BB ratio of 21/5 over 23.1 innings as a long reliever, fans were eager to see him shine as a starting pitcher. Projections even hinted at him being a key component in the team’s rotation—exciting for a 28-year-old rookie!

Expectations vs. Reality

But fast forward to this season, and Holmes isn’t delivering the magic we all hoped for. Following a rough outing against the Dodgers, his stats tell a story of struggle, showing a concerning 17/10 K/BB ratio over just 17.1 innings since then. Even his lowest xFIP- this season was a mediocre 113 against the Phillies.

Command Issues Plague His Game

Last season, Holmes showcased outstanding command with his breaking pitches, but this year, it’s been a different ballgame. Despite noticeable potential in his slider—now appearing more threatening on paper—his ability to place it consistently has diminished. The same goes for his curve, which has improved marginally but still fails to meet expectations.

Are Our Expectations Too High?

Maybe I overestimated Holmes, harboring hopes of more than just average fifth-starter performance. Nonetheless, it’s disappointing to witness his decline. Yet, there’s a silver lining! With positive outcomes in three recent starts, we can still hope that his underlying stats will align with his performance.

Season Snapshot: The Numbers Don't Lie

Current Record: 8-13 Yesterday’s Performance: - wOBA: .368 / xwOBA: .374 (Rank: 18th / 11th) - Opponent wOBA: .251 / xwOBA: .309 (Rank: 20th / 21st) - Home Runs: 3 vs. 1 allowed Overall season performance metrics highlight that the team struggles significantly when they are outmatched in certain categories, reflecting the ups and downs of the game.

The Season Is Still Young!

Although it’s easy to feel let down by Holmes' performance thus far, remember, it’s a long season. With time on his side, maybe he can turn things around and live up to the promise that excited fans just a year ago.