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Which One-Loss College Football Team Has the Best Chance to Reach the CFP?

2024-10-03

Author: Wai

As we approach Week 6 of the college football season, the excitement continues to build with thrilling matchups on the horizon.

Notably, this weekend features games that could significantly impact the College Football Playoff (CFP) landscape, especially after a whirlwind of action in previous weeks, including the highly anticipated Georgia vs. Alabama showdown.

In Seattle, former national champions Michigan and Washington clash with substantially altered lineups compared to their last encounter in January. Meanwhile, Missouri, still boasting an unblemished record, ventures to College Station to take on a resurging Texas A&M. In Columbus, Ohio State's high-powered offense faces a stern test against Iowa's defense, renowned for its stingy points allowed (averaging only 13.8 per game).

Additionally, 'College GameDay' is set to make its debut in Berkeley, California, as the undefeated Miami team faces off against California, adding another layer to the unfolding drama of the season. Amidst the games, critical narratives surrounding potential pathways to the expanded College Football Playoff are developing, highlighting impact freshmen and future matchups that could shift the trajectory for several teams.

One-Loss Contenders
Clemson’s Clear Path

Among the one-loss teams, Clemson is poised as the frontrunner for a CFP spot. The Tigers are navigating a relatively favorable schedule, with their most formidable remaining opponent being Louisville at home on November 2.

Clemson’s early-season loss to Georgia, albeit a significant one, came at a neutral site against what is likely a top-10 team, giving the committee something to consider when ranking conference champions.

If Clemson can maintain its upward trajectory in offensive performance, they have a solid chance of winning the ACC, which guarantees them a bid in the playoff. ESPN Analytics predict a greater than 50% chance of victory in each remaining game, with a potential ACC championship showdown with Miami likely determining their CFP fate.

Watch Out for LSU

Another one-loss team to monitor is LSU, under coach Brian Kelly's guidance. Historically slow starters, the Tigers tend to show improvement as the season progresses.

With crucial home games against Ole Miss and Alabama coming up after bye weeks, LSU is primed to pull off significant victories. Despite the recent loss of standout linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to an injury, their defense showed resilience by limiting South Alabama to just 10 points last week—a performance that emphasizes their growing efficiency.

Undefeated Teams Facing Tough Roads
Emerging Stars

On the flip side, Ohio State’s schedule is set to intensify in the upcoming weeks, as they face increasingly competitive opponents like Iowa and Oregon. Their rivalry clashes with Michigan and Penn State later this season further complicate an already challenging path to potential CFP inclusion.

Similarly, Miami's route to the playoff is daunting, with back-to-back away games against Cal and Louisville looming. Their victory against Virginia Tech was narrow and controversial, setting the stage for high-stakes matchups ahead. They may need to dominate in conference play or win the ACC outright to have a shot at an at-large bid should they fall short in the title bout against Clemson.

The spotlight this season is also on rising freshmen, notably Alabama's wide receiver Ryan Williams, who has made significant waves with exceptional performances. His ability to make plays consistently has drawn comparisons to established stars, and he currently holds a remarkable average of 28.9 yards per catch with five touchdowns.

Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith isn't far behind. His remarkable ability to secure possessions, including an impressive percentage of contested catches, showcases the depth of talent available in college football today.

Can the Service Academies Make the CFP?

Interestingly, both Army and Navy have found themselves in a position to contend for a CFP spot if either can secure the American Athletic Conference title. Their unique playing styles, particularly the triple-option offense, could put them in a favorable position should the selection committee favor their performance throughout the season.

Navy’s coach has emphasized the significance of their respective programs in offering a different perspective in college football, highlighting the unity and character forged within their ranks.

As discussions about the future of the CFP evolve, including potential expansions and changes to the selection process, the coming weeks will certainly determine which teams solidify their playoff aspirations and which narratives will dominate the headlines as we approach the end of the regular season.

Stay tuned as we get nearer to what's sure to be a sensational conclusion to the season!