Introduction

In a bold move on Thursday, former President Donald Trump unveiled a set of punitive tariffs on imports from 185 nations. Surprisingly, both Russia and its ally Belarus found themselves exempt from this list—an omission that raises eyebrows, especially when considering the current geopolitical climate. Meanwhile, Ukraine faces a hefty 10% tariff.

US Treasury's Justification

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to justify this exemption, indicating that existing sanctions already severely restrict trade with Russia. Following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the US and its allies increased sanctions significantly, leading to a dramatic drop in trade with Russia—plummeting from approximately $36 billion in 2021 to a projected $3.5 billion by 2024, according to the United States Census Bureau.

Questioning the Justification

However, Bessent's claim of 'no trade' with Russia doesn't fully hold up. Indeed, while imports from Russia have declined substantially, they include strategic goods such as fertilizers and chemicals, which are crucial for various sectors in the US economy.

Tariff Discrepancies

Compounding the mystery is the fact that while trade figures with Kazakhstan and Ukraine are lower than those of Russia—amounting to around $3.4 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively—both countries are facing new tariffs of 27% and 10%. This discrepancy suggests that the decision-making process behind these tariffs is more complex than mere trade volumes.

Political Analysis

Political analyst Alexandra Filippenko posits that the exclusion of Russia seems to be a 'symbolic leniency.' Several sanctioned nations such as Venezuela are included in Trump's tariffs, yet others, like Belarus and North Korea, are not accounted for. Bilateral trade between the US and Belarus is minimal—totalling roughly $21 million in 2024—but the rationale for these exclusions is unclear.

Canadian and Mexican Omission

Interestingly, significant players like Canada and Mexico were also omitted from the new tariffs list, despite already facing substantial existing tariffs on most of their goods.

Speculations on Relations with Russia

So, why such a favorable treatment for Russia? Filippenko theorizes that this gesture may be indicative of Trump's desire to improve relations with Moscow. This sentiment echoes through statements made by Kirill Dmitriev, a special envoy from Russia, who highlighted that dialogue between the two nations, though challenging, is necessary for progress.

Diplomatic Motives

Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School, concurs that diplomatic relations could be a motive for withholding tariffs. She notes that while some political pressure on Russia is expected, imposing tariffs at this point may hinder ongoing talks. Furthermore, the Trump administration retains the option to impose tariffs on Russia in the future if circumstances change.

Economic Rationale

On the contrary, Oleg Buklemishev, Director of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Moscow State University, describes the tariff decisions regarding Russia as lacking economic rationale. He argues that maintaining lower tariffs prevents soaring energy costs which could arise from high tariffs on Russian exports such as nuclear fuel and precious metals.

Future of US-Russian Trade Relations

As for the outlook on US-Russian trade relations, Buklemishev asserts that a return to pre-conflict trading levels is unrealistic, given that existing sanctions, logistical hurdles, and China's growing influence in the Russian market create longstanding barriers.

Conclusion

Ultimately, Trump's striking decision to spare Russia and Belarus from tariffs raises significant questions about the future of international trade relations — and whether economic considerations will yield to political expediency. What will this mean for ongoing sanctions and geopolitical dynamics? Only time will tell!