Understanding the Falcons’ Slow Start

The start of the season for the Atlanta Falcons was shrouded in disappointment, particularly after a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, led by quarterback Justin Fields. The game not only saw a lackluster performance but also raised concerns about Kirk Cousins, who took just one snap from under center and didn't attempt any play-action fakes. Following Achilles surgery on his right leg, Cousins exhibited limited mobility, registering the least movement in the pocket of his career in that game—an alarming takeaway from Week 1.

However, since that rough start, the Falcons appear to be adjusting. They successfully navigated their last three games, boasting a commendable 2-1 record, highlighted by nail-biting victories against both the Philadelphia Eagles and the New Orleans Saints, with a near miss against the Kansas City Chiefs. Their upcoming match against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could further define their trajectory, particularly as they aim to solidify their standing within the NFC South.

Offensive Concerns Despite Recent Success

Despite Atlanta's recent successes and a decent output of points, their offensive play remains a concern. Statistically speaking, their offense ranks around the league average for efficiency, such as expected points added (EPA) and success rates, but they have struggled in the touchdown department, scoring only five offensive touchdowns—the third-fewest in the league, trailing only the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, and Denver Broncos. Their recent win against the Saints, which included contributions from defense and special teams, failed to remedy the doubts surrounding their offensive capabilities.

The Importance of Play-Action in Atlanta’s Offense

A closer examination of their gameplay reveals a mixed strategy regarding under-center formations and play-action, which initially seemed promising after their match against the Eagles. Yet, this strategy appears to be waning, with a decrease in under-center snaps and play-action attempts in the games that followed.

Cousins' ability to utilize play-action effectively has also come under scrutiny. During Week 2, a fumbled exchange with running back Bijan Robinson illustrated the struggles of executing under-center plays, showcasing Cousins’ difficulties due to his recovery from surgery. As it stands, the Falcons are missing an opportunity to enhance their running game, which has shown decent efficiency stats—ranking 13th and 11th in success rate and EPA per rush, respectively. Notably, teams like the Rams, Saints, and Vikings have managed to optimize their running games, while the Falcons seem to be drifting further from that standard.

The Struggle of Cousins Under Pressure

Cousins' passing game limitations further compound Atlanta's offensive woes. While he has demonstrated slight improvements, his inability to reset his feet in the pocket and throw the ball with velocity remains a troubling sign. For a quarterback who once thrived under pressure, Cousins is currently challenged by the simple mechanics of pocket passing, struggling to deliver timely, accurate throws into tight windows.

The statistics shed light on this issue: over 31% of his throws beyond the line of scrimmage have been into tight windows—tight coverage situations that require not only precision but also velocity. When defensive backs anticipate his throws, as they did against the Saints, they become more adept at disrupting drives.

Moreover, Cousins couldn't rely on his receivers to create separation. The predictability of Atlanta's route combinations has made it easy for opposing defenses to break up passes. This deficiency is evident, especially with tight end Kyle Pitts, who is underutilized. Despite his speed, he's been relegated to running routes ill-suited for his athletic profile, which has limited his offensive impact.

A Call for Strategic Changes

Going forward, the Falcons must refine their offensive design to create better opportunities for their playmakers. The earlier motion and misdirection techniques that proved successful in Los Angeles under head coach Sean McVay appear to be absent in Atlanta. No player has registered significant success off motion this season, and this must change if the Falcons hope to capitalize on their offensive weapons.

The upcoming matchup against the 3-1 Buccaneers—a team that emphasizes blitzing and disguising coverage—poses an even greater challenge for Cousins and the Falcons. The tight windows are likely to persist, complicating their attempts to find a rhythm on offense.

Ultimately, while it was easy to identify fixes for the Falcons' woes after Week 1, it's become clear that overcoming their offensive obstacles will demand a concerted effort from both Cousins and the coaching staff. If they fail to find their footing soon, these struggles could lead to a season of missed potential. As the saying goes, "it's not how you start, but how you finish," and if the Falcons can't turn things around, they may find themselves in a hole too deep to climb out of as the playoffs approach.