Global Coal Usage Surges

PARIS: In a shocking revelation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on December 18 that global coal usage is poised to surge to unprecedented levels in 2024. This troubling spike comes in a year projected to be the hottest ever recorded, casting a long shadow over climate change efforts worldwide.

Despite the urgent and persistent calls to curb the burning of coal—widely recognized as the most polluting fossil fuel—the IEA indicates that global demand for coal is set to reach record highs for the third consecutive year. The implications of this trend are dire, with scientists warning that a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is essential to mitigate catastrophic climate consequences for both the planet and humanity.

Rising Temperatures Fuel Concerns

The European Union's climate monitoring body, Copernicus, has also confirmed that 2024 is "effectively certain" to outstrip 2023 and claim the title of hottest year, amplifying the urgency of the situation.

China's Impact on Coal Demand

According to the IEA's Coal 2024 report, while coal consumption is expected to peak at over 8.77 billion tonnes this year, it may not see a decline until 2027. This timeline rides heavily on China's coal demand, which has long eclipsed the rest of the world's consumption. Remarkably, China's insatiable thirst for electricity—stemming from its rapid economic growth and industrial expansion—accounts for over a third of global coal burning.

In fact, 2024 is projected to see Chinese coal demand hit a staggering 4.9 billion tonnes. While Beijing has ambitions to diversify its energy portfolio with solar and wind power, the reliance on coal remains deeply entrenched.

Emerging Markets Contribute to Coal Consumption

Emerging markets like India and Indonesia are contributing to this rising coal consumption, offsetting the declines seen in more developed economies. Nonetheless, the United States and the EU are witnessing a slowdown in their coal use reductions, with drops of just 5% and 12% expected, respectively, a significant change from the more pronounced declines of previous years.

Political Implications on Climate Policies

There is growing concern surrounding the potential implications of a second Trump presidency on U.S. climate policies. With Trump historically dismissing climate change as a "hoax," experts fear that any reversal of current commitments could derail progress in reducing coal dependency.

Record Coal Mining Output

Even more alarmingly, coal mining output has shattered records, exceeding nine billion tonnes for the first time. Major producers like China, India, and Indonesia are all reporting unprecedented production rates.

Energy Demand and Technological Impact

The surge in energy demand is being attributed in part to the explosion of data centers that power the rise of artificial intelligence and digital technologies. This rising power consumption trend is expected to further entrench coal's role in China's energy landscape.

A Reversal in Expectations

In a disappointing twist, the IEA’s 2024 forecast marks a reversal from last year's expectations that coal usage would begin to taper off after peaking in 2023. The global climate conversation seemed to stall during the recent COP29 meetings, raising alarms about the international community’s commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

As countries grapple with their energy futures, the IEA continues to proclaim itself as "the world's leading energy authority," yet it remains critical for nations to take action to avert a climate crisis that could endanger the very fabric of life on Earth. Will 2024 be a catalyst for change, or will it solidify our reliance on the dirtiest of fuels? Only time will tell.