A Crisis Looms: HIV Funding Cuts Could Surge Infections

A startling new study warns that planned cuts to international funding for HIV could lead to a staggering rise of 10.8 million new HIV cases and contribute to an additional 2.9 million deaths by 2030. This alarming projection was released by researchers in a modeling study published in *The Lancet HIV* on March 26, 2025.

The Stakes are High for the Most Vulnerable

The potential impact of these funding cuts is particularly dire for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which have relied on international sources for 40% of their HIV program funding since 2015. The top five donors— the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, and the Netherlands—have all announced significant reductions in foreign aid, threatening crucial HIV programs worldwide.

Dr. Ali Zumla, a prominent infectious disease expert at University College London, emphasized the importance of sustained political will and investment in fighting HIV, stating, "The projected surge in new infections and deaths is not an inevitability; it is a consequence of choices being made today." Without adequate funding, the ground gained over decades could erode, leaving millions vulnerable.

Unprecedented Cuts to Lifesaving Support

As of 2023, over 90% of international HIV program funding came from just five donors, with the U.S. supplying more than 72%. Much of this support stems from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which was recently affected by a funding pause instituted under the Trump administration. Although PEPFAR received a temporary waiver to continue some services, many facilities had already closed by that time, leaving a significant gap in support for vital antiretroviral therapy (ART) services.

Devastating Long-Term Consequences