Record-Breaking Temperatures and Unpredictable Rainfall Patterns

SINGAPORE – The year 2024 has proven to be a remarkable one for weather in Singapore, with the Republic experiencing record-setting temperatures and a series of atypical rainfall events. From the first dry spell since 2019 in July to unexpectedly warm weather conditions in December, this year has reaffirmed the unpredictable nature of Singapore's climate.

According to the annual climate assessment released by the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), Singapore received a staggering 2739.8 mm of rainfall for the year, surpassing the long-term average of 2534.3 mm. November 2024 became the wettest November in over 40 years, while an unusual dry spell struck just a month prior, showcasing the stark contrasts in precipitation this year.

The MSS noted a key component in understanding these anomalies is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a major climate driver that influences global weather patterns. While the uptick in temperatures is symptomatic of long-term climate change, the agency emphasized that the unusual rainfall patterns seen in 2024 could not be directly tied to these broader climate shifts. "Individual rainfall events cannot be attributed solely to climate change," they explained.

This year has been notably warm, tying it with previous records from 2016 and 2019 for the highest annual mean temperature at 28.4 degrees Celsius. Each month seemed to contribute to this heat, with July and December both setting high-temperature records. July was particularly striking, not only for its dry spell but for daily temperatures bouncing between 32.8 and 35.2 degrees Celsius, while nighttime lows hovered around 28 degrees Celsius.

The dry spell from July 13 to 30 was heavily influenced by at least three tropical cyclones in the northern South China Sea. These weather systems pushed drier air into Singapore, resulting in the extended dry conditions last seen during an equally prolonged dry spell in August 2019.

In sharp contrast, November experienced a torrential downpour, yielding an islandwide average of 419mm of rainfall driven, in part, by a weather phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This oscillation brought intense rain patterns, accounting for approximately 42% of November's total rainfall.

Climate experts, such as Dr. Koh Tieh Yong from the World Climate Research Programme, argue that attributing rainfall changes to climate change is complex. While shifting weather patterns can result in more or less rainfall in certain months, the underlying causes involve a greater redistribution of water vapor rather than a straightforward increase.

Moreover, September witnessed severe weather, including a violent Sumatra squall that swept across Singapore in a mere hour and a half, leading to widespread damage and affecting over 300 trees across the island. The storm dramatically decreased temperatures from around 30 degrees Celsius to a cooler 25 degrees Celsius in minutes, highlighting the extreme nature of some weather events.

In the latter months, the extreme rainfall resulted in flash floods in various districts, such as Tampines and Bukit Timah, underscoring the need for effective urban planning and disaster management strategies in the face of changing climate dynamics.

As 2024 wraps up, Singapore's weather stands as a testament to the often unpredictable and extreme nature of tropical climates, with scientists continuing to monitor and analyze the complex interactions at play. The interplay of natural phenomena and climate change remains a pressing concern for future weather forecasts and environmental management strategies in the region.