Introduction

Traditionally, the holiday shopping season has kicked off in November, but that trend is rapidly changing. In a bid to keep pace with Amazon's ever-expanding influence, more retailers are initiating sales events as early as October.

This shift began in earnest in 2020 when Amazon moved its popular Prime Day from July to October due to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. In 2022, Amazon continued the trend with a consistent second Prime Day each October — an event that saw remarkable growth in 2023, surpassing sales figures from the previous year.

Retailers Adapt to October Sales

Major retailers such as Walmart and Target quickly adapted to this new sales landscape. Walmart is planning a fall sale from October 8 to 13, extending its duration by two days compared to 2022, while Target’s promotional event will run from October 6 to 12, featuring more budget-friendly holiday items priced between $5 and $10. Specialty retailers are now following suit, with Best Buy and Wayfair also shifting their sales dates earlier — by two days and a whopping 20 days respectively.

How Analysts View the Change

According to Andrew Lipsman, an independent analyst at Media, Ads + Commerce, these recent adjustments are critical for retailers competing in October. "October Prime Day has established itself as a new shopping focal point," he explained. "Retailers need to engage in this period of heightened consumer activity to remain relevant."

The Declining Significance of Cyber Five

Interestingly, the significance of Cyber Five — the five-day shopping bonanza from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday — is decreasing in terms of holiday sales contribution. EMarketer predicts this year, Cyber Five will only account for 15.5% of total holiday e-commerce sales, a steep decline from 20% in 2019. This ongoing trend has prompted concerns among retailers who risk missing out on early holiday spending if they ignore October sales.

Changing Consumer Behavior

The current holiday sales landscape is markedly different from that of five to ten years ago. A survey by Gartner found that nearly 32% of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping as early as July, a modest increase from previous years. Moreover, nearly half of shoppers (48%) aim to kick off their purchasing by August or September, further stretching the holiday shopping period.

Strategies for Retailers

To capitalize on this trend, retailers are under pressure to ramp up their promotions during the summer and fall months. However, the effectiveness of these deals can vary considerably, especially for cost-conscious consumers. Retailers are strategically leveraging these sales not just to move products but also to boost membership sign-ups for loyalty programs.

For example, Amazon's October sales event is exclusive to Prime members, who pay $14.99 monthly or $139 annually, while Wayfair’s promotions are available to all customers, though they feature extra incentives for professional members.

Concerns About Early Promotions

Melissa Minkow, a director of retail strategy at technology solutions provider CI&T, expressed cautious optimism about these early sales. While bolstering customer sensitivity to discounts might benefit retailers, Minkow warned against the dangers of offering too many promotions too early. “If you exhaust your margins now, what will you have left to offer in November and December?” she asked. Retailers must be strategic, ensuring their promotional events attract shoppers while maintaining sustainable profit margins.

Conclusion

As the retail landscape rapidly evolves, October sales are no longer an afterthought but a crucial component of the holiday season. Will other retailers follow suit and join the October sales frenzy, or will they risk losing out to the competition? Only time will tell!