Syrian Rebel Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa Seizes Control After Assad’s Fall – What Lies Ahead?
2024-12-12
Author: John Tan
DAMASCUS: In a stunning turn of events, rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has swiftly consolidated power over Syria following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. With his militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), taking the helm of the state, they are starting to establish law and order, appoint an interim government, and engage with foreign diplomats. This rapid transition has raised eyebrows about the inclusiveness of the new governance system taking shape in the nation.
HTS emerged as the dominant force in the military struggle against Assad's regime after a decisive victory on December 8. Their bureaucrats, previously administering areas in northwest Syria, have now moved into key government offices within Damascus.
The recent appointment of Mohammed al-Bashir as interim prime minister signifies HTS's commitment to maintaining a semblance of control over the transitional government. Al-Bashir, who previously led the HTS government in Idlib, emphasized that the group's goal is to unify Syria and address the concerns of its diverse population, such as minorities and ethnic groups.
“We have no intention of enforcing an Islamic state," he remarked. "It's essential to rebuild civil institutions." However, doubts linger regarding the process used to form the new government, as many feel it lacks representation of other political factions and ethnic groups. Diplomats and opposition members have voiced concerns about HTS's approach, suggesting that this could lead to an exclusionary or authoritarian regime cloaked in Islamic rhetoric.
The new interim government has proposed significant reforms, including the disbanding of Assad's security apparatus and the release of prisoners unjustly detained during his rule. While many Syrians are relieved at the fall of Assad's oppressive regime, some express trepidation over the potential emergence of a new authoritarian government dominated by HTS.
One resident, Wissam Bashir, shared his anxieties about the proliferation of Islamic flags and questioned the new government’s direction. The symbolism in al-Bashir's media appearances, where he has been flanked by both the opposition flag and Islamic banners, has only heightened concerns.
Several political analysts argue that while HTS's predominance is apparent, the presence of various armed factions and the diverse cultural fabric of Syrian society may inhibit any single group from achieving absolute control. The chaotic nature of the Syrian conflict has carved deep divisions, and dissent within the opposition could pose challenges for HTS's governance.
In a recent interview, al-Bashir asserted that he would lead the government only until March 2025, but he did not clarify much beyond that regarding the future structure of governance in Syria. Issues like whether Syria will adopt a presidential or parliamentary system remain open, signaling uncertainty about the nation’s political trajectory.
As humanitarian crises worsen amid these transitions, the international community, particularly the Western powers, are urging HTS to embrace inclusivity in governance, with the US emphasizing the need for a non-sectarian approach consistent with UN resolutions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reiterated calls for credible governance that would restore faith in the political process.
The presence of unaligned armed groups and the need for constitutional reform underscore the fragility of this new political phase in Syria. Analysts stress that for HTS to maintain its legitimacy and prevent chaos, it must broaden its horizon by including technocrats and representatives from various communities.
The unfolding situation in Syria is precarious, and it remains to be seen whether Ahmad al-Sharaa can navigate this challenging landscape without backsliding into authoritarianism, or if a more comprehensive approach can be achieved to foster a stable and inclusive Syria. Stay tuned, as this story continues to develop with the potential for both unprecedented opportunities and significant risks ahead!