SINGAPORE: As the war between Ukraine and Russia surpasses the milestone of 1,000 days, Ukraine has accused Moscow of employing psychological tactics by disseminating false alerts concerning imminent attacks. This follows recent incidents where two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were severed within a short span, leading officials from Europe and the U.S. to classify these actions as part of Russia's hybrid warfare strategy.

Defining Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid warfare combines traditional military might with non-traditional tactics, making it challenging to define precisely. The NATO military alliance describes it as a strategic mix of military and non-military actions, which include disinformation campaigns, cyber warfare, economic coercion, and the use of irregular armed groups. This approach aims to confuse target populations by blurring the lines between peace and conflict, ultimately destabilizing societies.

Historical Context and Utilization

The origins of hybrid warfare can be traced back to ancient military wisdom, such as that of Sun Tzu, who emphasized achieving victory without direct confrontation. However, its modern connotation primarily stems from Cold War tactics employed by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which included clandestine operations and espionage.

Russia solidified its status as a hybrid warfare practitioner after military chief Valery Gerasimov's 2013 article, where he asserted that non-military means now play a central role in achieving strategic objectives. This perspective was further evidenced in subsequent years by allegations of Russian interference in Western elections and geopolitical maneuvers in regions like Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

China, too, has adopted hybrid warfare tactics as outlined in the 1999 book *Unrestricted Warfare* by two PLA colonels. They argued that modern warfare exists on a "borderless battlefield," where conventional military strategies are increasingly insufficient.

In recent times, both nations have demonstrated a penchant for psychological operations, media manipulation, and legal warfare to further their interests, often without visible military engagement. For example, a Chinese influence campaign aimed at swaying U.S. public sentiment and disavowing legal actions taken against its operatives showcases the effective use of hybrid methods.

The Attraction of Hybrid Warfare

Post-Cold War, as Russia's military capabilities waned, it turned increasingly to hybrid tactics as a means to circumvent direct military confrontations with the West. This strategy allows nations to exploit weaknesses without engaging in open warfare, making it attractive in an era where the costs and risks of direct confrontation are higher than ever.

As global tensions rise, the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has added a new dimension to hybrid warfare. Sophisticated AI tools can easily fabricate credible-seeming news content that can mislead the public, escalating distrust in mainstream media and institutions.

Consequences and Global Implications

Hybrid warfare's implications extend beyond the immediate geographical conflicts. China's aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea have already led to violent confrontations with nations like the Philippines, raising tensions in a region fraught with overlapping territorial claims.

The geopolitical climate remains precarious, with the potential for hybrid conflicts to escalate into traditional warfare, particularly as proxy wars—like those seen between Iran and Israel—further entangle global markets and regional stability.

In Singapore, the government has acknowledged the growing threat posed by hybrid warfare tactics, implementing measures to combat foreign disinformation campaigns, which underscores the increasing relevance of these strategies on the global stage.

As the landscape of warfare continues to evolve, understanding hybrid warfare emerges as crucial for nations seeking to navigate the complexities of modern geopolitical conflicts and safeguarding their interests. Expect more headlines on this issue as the global balance shifts!