Finance

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: Major Moves in the Canadian Energy Sector

2024-10-08

Author: Emily

In a significant update from the market, analysts are making noteworthy adjustments to their ratings and targets for Canadian companies, particularly in the energy sector, following some impactful corporate developments.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) Update

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ) has received a boost in its rating after announcing the acquisition of Chevron Canada Ltd.’s oil and gas assets in Alberta. Desjardins Securities analyst Chris MacCulloch upgraded CNQ's rating from "hold" to "buy," declaring that the acquisition represents 'an attractive entry point' for what he considers the top-quality producer in the Canadian oil and gas landscape.

MacCulloch emphasized the substantial potential of the newly acquired Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) and Duvernay assets, projecting they could generate $1.5 billion in debt-adjusted cash flow by 2025 at current strip prices. He also noted that the purchase, while increasing balance sheet leverage, promises a more favorable return profile, raising his target price for CNQ shares to $59 from $56. Other analysts also joined in with positive revisions, with National Bank’s Travis Wood adjusting his target to $53 from $52, and RBC’s Greg Pardy lifting his to $62 from $59, highlighting CNQ’s strong operational performance and shareholder returns.

Energy Services Sector Update

However, the energy services sector is feeling a pinch. TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil forecasts a lack of positive momentum, lowering his activity outlook for the third quarter due to high Canadian gas inventories and limited near-term drilling upside. Target price reductions followed suit for several energy service companies, reflecting this sobering outlook. Highlights include Enerflex Ltd. dropped to $12, Ensign Energy down to $3.25, and Pason Systems reduced to $18.

RB Global Inc. and IAA Inc. Acquisition

In the wake of RB Global Inc.’s acquisition of IAA Inc., National Bank’s Maxim Sytchev expressed optimism about the company's potential for multiple expansions and competitive positioning in the salvage auction domain, maintaining an "outperform" rating with a target price of US$90.

Canadian Miners Outlook

Analysts at Scotia Capital forecast a mixed bag for Canadian miners reporting third-quarter results, suggesting improved operating performances may not offset weaker commodity prices. They anticipate cash margins could expand as cost pressures stabilize, although they reiterated concerns over potential negative guidance revisions from several producers amidst fluctuating economic conditions.

South Bow Corp. Spinoff

Even more, Jefferies analyst Anthony Linton has expressed a cautious approach following the spinoff of South Bow Corp., offering a "hold" recommendation given its high leverage and lower growth metrics compared to peers.

In summation, as the Canadian energy and mining sectors experience substantial transactional activity and shifting forecasts, analysts are vigorously reassessing expectations and valuations, which may present both opportunities and challenges for investors navigating these turbulent waters. Investors are advised to stay alert for potential implications on their portfolios as these analysts continue to evaluate the unfolding landscape in energy resources and services.