Liberals Hold Steady in Latest Polling

In the ongoing 2025 federal election campaign, the Liberals have regained a six-point lead over the Conservatives, according to the latest Nanos Research polling data. The Liberals are currently at 44%, while the Conservatives remain at 38% across Canada.

Other Parties Struggle for Relevance

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is lagging behind at just 9%, followed closely by the Bloc Quebecois at 6%, the Green Party at 3%, and the People’s Party at 2%.

Regional Dynamics: An East-West Showdown

The political landscape is markedly divided along regional lines. Nik Nanos describes the situation as an "east versus west showdown". The Liberals dominate in Eastern Canada, while the Conservatives are effectively in control of the Prairies.

In Ontario—home to a significant number of seats—the Conservatives saw a spike earlier in the week, hitting 41%, but have now dropped to 37%. Meanwhile, the Liberals have surged ahead to 51% in the same region.

The Liberals enjoy considerable support in Quebec, where they're currently polling at 43%, compared to 24% for the Conservatives. Interestingly, the Bloc Quebecois is in a close second, having slipped slightly to 25%.

Political Tensions on Display

Nanos highlights that the East-West divide serves to illustrate the deep-seated political tensions within Canada. In the Prairies, where the Conservatives boast a staggering 25-point advantage, it’s perplexing to them that any voters would consider supporting the Liberals. Conversely, in Eastern Canada, there is a notable underestimation of Conservative support among Westerners.

Preferred Prime Minister: Carney vs. Poilievre

As for preferred leadership, Carney leads with 47% of Canadians favoring him over Poilievre, who has climbed to 34%. However, Carney’s substantial lead has shrunk from over 20 points just a week ago.

Gender Dynamics in Voting Preferences

Breaking it down by gender, women are significantly more likely to support the Liberals, with 51% indicating their preference, compared to 29% for the Conservatives and 11% for the NDP. Among men, support for the Liberals sits at 36%, while 47% back the Conservatives, with just 6% opting for the NDP.

Stay Tuned for More Insights

As the election campaign progresses, stay tuned for daily updates from CTVNews.ca, featuring exclusive polling data that keeps you in the loop on the shifting sands of Canadian politics.