Vote Intention: Conservatives Dominate Amid Stagnation

If a federal election were held today, 44% of declared voters would opt for the Conservatives, while both the Liberals and the NDP sit at 21%. The Bloc Québécois (BQ) leads in Quebec with 32% of voter support. Notably, all changes from the previous survey fall within the margin of error, signaling a stable yet significant Conservative dominance.

Regionally, the Conservatives hold significant leads across most provinces, with margins such as +12 in British Columbia, +42 in Alberta, and +24 in Ontario. However, in Quebec, the BQ leads by 5%, with the Liberals lagging at 4% behind.

Demographically, the Conservatives are favored across age groups, though their lead is narrower among younger voters. Interestingly, 48% of men prefer the Conservatives compared to 41% of women.

Rising Discontent Among Canadians

Current sentiments indicate a decline in the nation’s overall mood, with only 22% of Canadians feeling the country is on the right track—a 5-point drop since November and the lowest level recorded since early 2023. In a surprising twist, more Canadians feel the United States is moving in the right direction (23%) compared to their own country.

The federal government’s approval rating remains bleak at 24%, with disapproval rates steady at 61%. A significant majority, 53%, express a desire for a change in government, believing there are viable alternatives to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, who only manage to capture the support of 14% of respondents.

Leadership Perceptions: Trudeau, Singh, and Poilievre

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s approval remains stagnant, with 23% of Canadians viewing him positively and 61% negatively, resulting in a concerning net score of -38. Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's favorability is also low, as 31% view him positively against 39% negative, keeping him at a net score of -8.

Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, has a mixed reputation: 41% of respondents view him positively, while 36% hold a negative view, yielding a modest net score of +5. Interestingly, the recent election of Donald Trump has not significantly impacted perceptions of Poilievre.

Concerns Over Immigration and the Economy Rise

When assessing the top issues affecting Canadians, the cost of living, healthcare, and housing remain at the forefront, with immigration now emerging as a top concern for 33% of respondents. Climate change, on the other hand, has dropped in importance, identified as a top issue by only 18%.

The Conservatives are seen as the party best equipped to handle the pressing issues, leading on affordability (by 24 points), healthcare (by 2), and more dramatically on immigration (by 49 points). This positions them strongly for the next election, especially if voters prioritize parties based on their ability to address specific concerns.

The Effect of Trump

Furthermore, despite Donald Trump’s return to the political stage, his approval rating in Canada remains low. While positive perceptions of the former U.S. president have seen a slight uptick after recent tariff discussions, he still garners significant unpopularity with Canadians. Notably, half of those who view Poilievre positively also have a favorable view of Trump, highlighting a divide in opinion.

Conclusion: A Challenging Landscape for Liberals

As summarized by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, the political climate remains challenging for the Liberals, who trail significantly behind the Conservatives. With public sentiment leaning towards change and a preference for Conservative policies on critical issues, the upcoming electoral battle is likely to intensify. The findings suggest that while the air feels thick with uncertainty, one thing remains clear: the Conservative Party is currently riding a wave of notable momentum.