Last Sunday, the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrated their seventh win in eight games, achieving an impressive feat while star player Auston Matthews was sidelined. This remarkable performance has raised eyebrows, as it defies expectations for any team, but particularly for one missing its most valuable player.

As it stands, the Leafs currently hold the sixth-best record in the NHL (tied with the Vegas Golden Knights) and lead the Atlantic Division by three points over the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, whom they’re set to face in Florida on Wednesday.

This begs the question: how good are the Maple Leafs really? Are they genuine Stanley Cup contenders, or are they still just a step below the elite teams as many anticipated at the start of the season?

A Defensive Revolution

The Maple Leafs have significantly improved their defensive play, a goal set by the front office during the offseason when they acquired defensemen Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Jani Hakanpää, while hiring Craig Berube as head coach. Last season, the Leafs struggled defensively, finishing 21st in the league in goals allowed per game (3.18). This season, however, they've climbed to fourth place, allowing only 2.48 goals per game.

What’s particularly impressive is their ability to limit quality scoring opportunities while playing at five-on-five. The pair of Tanev and Jake McCabe has been critical to this improvement, giving up just 6.4 high-danger attempts per 60 minutes—an outstanding statistic among defensive pairings with significant ice time.

Moreover, the penalty kill has seen a significant jump from last season’s mediocre 76.9 percent to a formidable 83.6 percent this year, ranking sixth in the NHL. They're allowing nearly nine fewer shots while short-handed, showcasing a marked improvement.

Stellar Goaltending

The resurgence in the Leafs' defensive statistics has been complemented by stellar performances from their goaltenders. Currently, they boast a team save percentage of .913, ranking fourth in the league, and their five-on-five performance is equally impressive at third place. During this eight-game stretch without Matthews, the goaltending duo of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll has created a juggernaut defense, posting an astonishing .942 save percentage—far superior to any other team.

Offensive Challenges

Despite their defensive successes, the Leafs’ offense has struggled, especially in five-on-five situations. Over the last eight games without Matthews, they’ve scored only nine goals at even strength—tied for the fewest in the league—while allowed a mere eight goals. This shocking statistic underscores a conundrum: while they’ve been defensively sound, their offense has stagnated. Their recent power play improvement has masked these struggles, but it’s evident they need to generate more scoring chances.

Head coach Craig Berube has indicated they need to be more aggressive in their offensive strategy, transitioning to a more attacking style rather than relying on controlling the puck on the periphery.

Looking Ahead: The Return of Matthews

The return of Auston Matthews—tentatively scheduled for either Wednesday against Florida or Saturday in Tampa—could be a game-changer. His presence not only boosts scoring potential but also offers the opportunity to shake up the lineup strategically.

Fans will be keen to see how Matthews reintegrates into a power play that has started to find rhythm in his absence. Will he disrupt what’s been working, or elevate it further? Moreover, it will be essential to monitor his overall conditioning and readiness, particularly how he performs physically after his injury.

Stock Watch

- Stock Up: Mitch Marner's recent form has been remarkably consistent; he’s found the back of the net seven times in the last ten games.

- Stock Down: Morgan Rielly’s possession numbers have dipped significantly, indicating defensive struggles and room for improvement.

Final Thoughts

As the Maple Leafs face off against formidable opponents like the Panthers in the coming days, this matchup could serve as a defining moment. A strong performance could solidify their status as a true playoff contender. However, the real question linger: will their early-season success translate into meaningful playoff results, or are the fears of past playoff disappointments simply waiting in the wings? One thing is certain, the upcoming games will be pivotal in shaping the narrative surrounding this year's team.