In a twist that has surprised political analysts and citizens alike, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party looks poised for a staggering comeback, reversing a dire trajectory that had many predicting doom for the party just months ago.

Recent polling data released by three prominent Canadian polling firms indicates that under newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberals are not merely recovering but are projected to secure a majority government in the upcoming election. This unexpected shift is rarely seen in Canadian political history and is largely attributed to external factors, particularly the unpredictable actions of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Political analyst Philippe Fournier has been closely tracking this electoral saga, recently updating his influential predictive model on 338Canada. For the first time, his analyses suggest the Liberals now have a 55% chance of clinching majority control, a dramatic leap from their previous options of less than 1% just in January.

The Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, was riding a wave of popularity fueled by a controversial carbon tax and Trudeau's waning approval ratings, with predictions suggesting he was on the path to a historic electoral victory. In fact, at one point, Conservative polling figures showed Poilievre boasting a commanding lead of 20 to 27 points over the Liberals.

However, everything changed with Trudeau's surprising resignation and heightened rhetoric from Trump, which has significantly altered the political landscape. Fournier noted a “stunning Conservative collapse,” highlighting that Poilievre’s chances of winning are now down to 15%. The Conservatives are in danger of squandering one of the largest polling leads in modern history.

Polling experts have observed a clear upward trend for the Liberals as they draw support away from both the Conservative party and the leftwing New Democratic Party (NDP). If these trends continue, the NDP could see a collapse of support resulting in a loss of status in the House of Commons, an outcome unprecedented in such a short time frame.

Éric Grenier, another political analyst, remarked that this rapid change in sentiment among voters reflects the unique external pressures stemming from U.S.-Canada relations, notably under Trump. “It isn't merely a question of a leadership honeymoon,” he stated, highlighting how these pressures introduce volatility into public opinion.

For Poilievre, the landscape has drastically shifted. His earlier strategy of harnessing populist sentiments now seems less effective, especially as the nationalistic atmosphere supersedes traditional partisanship. This week, he held a campaign event titled “Axe the Tax,” mere days after Carney had scrapped the consumer-facing carbon tax, demonstrating confusion in the Conservative camp.

Meanwhile, polling from the Angus Reid Institute reveals further grim news for Poilievre: Canadians now favor Carney over him on key issues relating to the ongoing trade conflict and Canada's economic future. Currently, 41% of Canadians view Carney as the most suitable candidate for prime minister, while only 29% prefer Poilievre — a stark contrast to the 19-point lead Poilievre had over Trudeau just before Trudeau's resignation.

If current polling reflects the reality of the impending election, the Liberal party could remarkably transform from a “tired, discardable brand” into a dominant force poised for a fourth term, this time with a majority in parliament. This entire saga accentuates the profound impact that Donald Trump has wielded over Canadian politics, as Trudeau, who had previously faced dire approval ratings, now leaves with a 47% approval following his emergency response to trade threats, marking a compelling 25-point recovery.

As Canadians prepare to head to the polls, all eyes will be on whether this miraculous turnaround for the Liberals will translate into electoral success, or if Poilievre and the Conservatives can mount a comeback to reclaim their lost ground. The stakes have never been higher, and the political drama continues to unfold in real-time.