Introduction

As the mayor of Saint John, Donna Reardon, navigates through a fog of uncertainty, she and the city’s 78,000 residents find themselves grappling with unsettling questions about their economic future. Describing her situation, Reardon metaphorically compares it to "being on a roller coaster with a blindfold on," reflecting the unpredictable nature of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies. Over a lengthy interview, she voiced her frustration with uncertainty, stating various forms of “I don’t know” a staggering 27 times.

Economic Vulnerability

Saint John, perched along the Bay of Fundy, is historically and economically intertwined with the U.S., making it particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in trade agreements and tariffs. Recently designated as Canada's “most tariff-exposed” city by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Saint John's economy heavily relies on its exports of oil, seafood, and lumber to the United States. This ranking puts the city—and its residents—at significant risk given the looming trade war and ongoing threats of new tariffs.

Concern Over Tariffs

In light of increasing tariffs, which initially included a staggering 10% on Canadian energy and critical minerals, and 25% on other goods, Saint John's officials are deeply concerned. These tariffs were delayed only days after being announced, creating further anxiety among local businesses and policymakers. Industry leaders believe that these levies could lead to severe financial repercussions across multiple sectors, with Saint John's economy in jeopardy.

Unpredictable Future

Reardon highlighted the difficulty in planning for the future amid such unpredictable trade policies, stating, “Every morning I get up, I don’t know what the landscape is going to be.” This existential threat prompted the New Brunswick provincial government to unveil a response plan in March, aimed at mitigating the impact of tariffs and supporting affected residents and businesses.

Significance of the Energy Sector

The energy sector, notably dominated by the Irving Oil refinery—the largest in Canada—holds particular significance for Saint John's economy. Nearly all refined products from the facility are destined for the U.S., making it extremely sensitive to trade policy changes. Concerns are rife around how tariffs will affect oil prices, particularly for American customers and the broader supply chain.

Political Context

The larger backdrop of this crisis is a federal election taking place on April 28, raising questions about how a new government would navigate these tumultuous waters. As Reardon noted, “The old saying goes, you can’t build a house without a blueprint.” However, what is clear is that the city’s dependent relationship on U.S. trade is starting to bear down on residents and businesses alike.

Provincial Impact

Saint John isn't alone in facing this industrial duality. The trade war's shadow extends across the entire province of New Brunswick, where an astonishing 92% of international exports flow south of the border, representing nearly $16 billion and supporting over 40,000 jobs. The health of the local economy is intertwined with the fate of its exports, and business leaders are bracing for potential fallout.

Community Concerns

Shannon Merrifield, CEO of the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce, conveyed an ever-present sense of anxiety, asserting, “If planned tariffs do come into force, it’s going to affect our region significantly.” This unease is echoed throughout the community, fostering a collective feeling of helplessness in the face of an uncertain economic future.

Historical Context

Contrary to the historical optimism following 2016’s recovery from an economic lull, the resurgence faced a new challenge with the cancellation of the Energy East pipeline in 2017, which local leaders had viewed as a beacon of economic growth. With a slew of mixed messages regarding the support for a potential revival of the pipeline, officials like Jean-Claude D’Amours emphasize the critical need for new investments to secure jobs and growth in Saint John's economic landscape.

Local Response

Local residents are also feeling the effects of the trade war on their spending habits, with many opting to buy Canadian-made products to support the local economy. The ripples of the tariff measures are evident, negatively impacting not just large corporations but communities where economic activity is driven by small businesses and local pride.

Provincial Initiatives

As the region sits on the precipice of potential economic upheaval, New Brunswick's government is making moves to eliminate trade barriers within Canada, a step aimed not only at bolstering its economy but also reckoning with the larger picture of national economic resilience in the face of external pressures.

Conclusion

While the future remains uncertain, the community's response is clear: they are ready to band together and adapt, redefining what it means to support local economies in an increasingly interconnected yet fragile world. As political maneuvers unfold in the months to come, Saint John braces for the impacts, whether systemic reforms occur or not, and the high-stakes game continues.