Rebel forces, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched a significant offensive in northern Syria, advancing into the key city of Aleppo and heading southward towards Hama. This surprising assault, which began just five days ago, may ignite a new chapter in the ongoing 13-year conflict in Syria.

In a surprising twist, Syria's military announced a "temporary troop withdrawal" from Aleppo, the nation’s second-largest city, stating that they would regroup in preparation for reinforcements to mount a counterattack. Since 2016, Aleppo has been under the control of President Bashar al-Assad's forces, bolstered by military backing from Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, following a devastating air campaign that allowed the regime to reclaim the city, once home to around two million residents.

Who Commands What in Syria?

The conflict in Syria involves four primary groups contending for territorial control:

1. Syrian Government Forces: This includes the national army and the National Defence Forces, a paramilitary group loyal to the Assad regime.

2. Syrian Democratic Forces: A US-backed coalition dominated by Kurdish factions, primarily operating in eastern Syria.

3. HTS and Allied Rebel Groups: HTS, evolved from the al-Nusra Front, distanced itself from al-Qaeda ties in 2016 and now leads a coalition of rebels challenging Assad’s regime.

4. Turkish-Backed Syrian Rebels: These include the Syrian National Army, a group supported by Turkey, which maintains a significant presence in northern Syria.

The Assault Unfolds

The offensive commenced on Wednesday, coinciding with a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. HTS launched the attack from its stronghold in the Idlib governorate, framing the offensive as a response to recent assaults by Syrian government forces on cities in Idlib, such as Ariha and Sarmada, where civilian casualties—including victims tragically among children—were reported. The goal is not just retaliation but also to deter further attacks on its territory.

This military action marks the most substantial confrontation against Assad's forces since the brokered ceasefire in Idlib in 2020, which was facilitated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

By Wednesday evening, rebel forces had claimed control of at least 19 towns and villages from pro-government troops, including vital military installations, as they moved deeper into western Aleppo governorate. The Syrian regime retaliated with shelling of rebel-held positions and aerial bombardments from Russian air force jets.

By Thursday, the situation escalated as rebels expanded their territorial gains, notably pushing towards the crucial M5 highway—a strategic route leading to Syria's capital, Damascus, situated about 300 kilometers (186 miles) to the south.

The attack continued to intensify on Friday, with rebel factions entering parts of Aleppo city after initiating chaos with two car bomb detonations, engaging government forces on the western outskirts of the city. Reports indicated that Syria's military was receiving significant air support from Russian forces.

Visuals began circulating on social media over the weekend, depicting rebel fighters posing triumphantly next to the ancient Citadel of Aleppo as they advanced through the city. After successfully seizing Aleppo, the rebels have moved southward, although reports about their potential advance to the central city of Hama remain uncertain.

The opposition has declared an initiative aimed at expanding safe zones and facilitating the return of displaced civilians in Idlib to their homes in areas the rebels now refer to as “liberated.” With ongoing violence and complex dynamics at play, the situation remains fluid, and the roads ahead for Syria appear fraught with uncertainty.

As the conflict sharpens, the world watches closely—will the rebels assert their dominance, or will Assad's forces regroup and retaliate, reigniting the cycle of violence? The strategic stakes have never been higher.