As the Bank of Canada (BoC) prepares for its upcoming interest rate decision, homebuyers are left grappling with the pervasive uncertainty brought on by Trump-era tariffs.

Industry experts warn that even a potential rate cut on Wednesday is unlikely to entice hesitant buyers back into the housing market. With the threat of tariffs looming, the market has ground to a standstill, and this trend appears set to persist through the typically bustling spring season.

Sidelined Buyers in a Tough Economy

"I don’t foresee the usual spring market reviving, despite my hopes," remarked Kingsley Ma, a vice-president at RE/MAX Canada. "Buyers are hesitant, caught up in uncertainty. When job security is at stake, even a lower interest rate isn’t enough to coax them back into homeownership."

Kelly Ho, a certified financial planner at DLD Financial Group, adds, "Uncertainty regarding the ability to manage large mortgages creates a chaotic environment for potential buyers."

Who’s Really Buying?

Current market activity is showing signs of life primarily from high-income earners who feel equipped to weather these economic storms, notes Ron Butler, a mortgage broker. "We are seeing very few average buyers stepping up to make purchases," he stated.

What Will the BoC do?

More than 60% of economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that the BoC will maintain the interest rate at 2.75%. However, experts like Ma believe this decision may not have much impact on the market dynamics. "The last cut in March didn’t invigorate sales, indicating a sluggish reaction to such moves," he explained.

Sales Drop to Troubling Lows

Recent data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revealed a concerning picture: March home sales fell by 4.4% compared to February, hitting a staggering 9.3% decrease from March of the previous year—the lowest sales numbers since 2009. B.C. and Ontario experienced the most significant declines, a trend that spans nearly all regions in Canada barring a few small markets.

A Bleak Outlook for Home Sales

"We’ve transitioned from expecting a definitive rebound to merely hoping to stay afloat," said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. CREA now forecasts about 482,673 home sales in 2025—essentially unchanged from 2024 and representing a stark downgrade from an anticipated 8.6% increase in annual sales earlier this year.

In summary, as the Bank of Canada weighs its decisions, it’s clear that uncertainty and economic upheaval are reigning supreme in the housing market, keeping eager buyers at bay.