Introduction

As the MLB offseason heats up, the spotlight remains on superstar Juan Soto, and fans and analysts alike are buzzing about potential trades and signings. Many argue that every team capable of making a substantial investment should pursue Soto, including the Toronto Blue Jays. However, could the team's strategy actually be misguided?

The Case Against Juan Soto

It seems logical to think that the Blue Jays would increase their chances of acquiring Soto if they first secured a long-term deal for their own star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. At just 25, Guerrero is a key asset for the Jays, and his future with the team could impact Soto’s decision significantly. After all, Soto, who is 26, is navigating a competitive market and will surely choose the best situation for his talent. If the Jays want to outbid teams like the New York Mets, they must first solidify their own roster's foundation.

A concerning factor for the Jays is their current positional standing in the American League East, which features strong competitors such as the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Tampa Bay Rays. The health of the Jays’ farm system is also a cause for concern; ranked 23rd by Baseball America and 20th by The Athletic's Keith Law, their prospects do not promise the immediate support Guerrero needs. Moreover, with the potential for both Guerrero and Bo Bichette to hit free agency after next season, the team's stability is under question.

The uncertainty surrounding the Jays’ management, including President Mark Shapiro and General Manager Ross Atkins, who both have contracts expiring in the next few years, might also play a role in the tumultuous environment. The urgency to make a splash, such as their interest in Shohei Ohtani and Soto, may be a signal that the organization is feeling the pressure to elevate its competitiveness quickly.

While a Soto-Guerrero pairing would undoubtedly be formidable—considering that Guerrero had a .940 OPS last season—Soto might very well choose to invest his career elsewhere, given the Blue Jays' vulnerabilities.

The Case for Alex Bregman

Shifting our focus to free agency, the situation surrounding third baseman Alex Bregman is gaining traction. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects a seven-year contract worth $189 million for the star. However, Bregman, represented by the savvy Scott Boras, appears to be aiming for a deal that mirrors the monumental 11-year, $350 million extension Manny Machado received from the San Diego Padres.

While some may find this ambitious, Bregman’s career stats, including an OPS+ that is 32% above league average, suggest he could warrant such a deal. Interestingly, at the time Machado signed his extension, he had nearly 1,500 more plate appearances than Bregman has now, presenting a case for Bregman's potential value.

In terms of postseason experience, Bregman stands out, having participated in 99 playoff games. His performance in these high-stakes moments, averaging a postseason OPS of .789, adds another layer to his market appeal. Boras hides no secret in leveraging this point; he knows owners crave championship-caliber players.

Shortstop Market Dynamics

As the shortstop landscape has thinned, Willy Adames appears to be the standout option in free agency. Projected to receive a six-year deal worth $150 million, Adames has the advantage of durability and versatility, having the willingness to adjust his defensive position. However, the wide-ranging results from lucrative shortstop contracts signed in recent years reveal a volatile market.

Several recent deals have proven to be more burdensome than beneficial for teams, with players like Javier Báez and Trevor Story struggling to perform consistently. Conversely, players like Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager have found success, yielding substantial value for their respective clubs.

What’s Next for the Orioles?

Finally, the Baltimore Orioles hover on the brink of a transformative offseason. After trading for ten prospects, reports unveil their interest in high-caliber talent through free agency rather than solely focusing on trades. The leadership of new ownership seems intent on bolstering the pitching rotation, potentially targeting aces like Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell.

As the winter progresses and the MLB landscape shifts, keeping an eye on franchises like the Blue Jays, Orioles, and the future moves of stars like Soto and Bregman will be essential. Rumors will abound, but savvy decisions grounded in player performance and team dynamics will be the keys to unlocking each franchise's potential success in the seasons to come.