Introduction

In an astonishing twist of fate, Jayden Daniels has gone from a sensational rookie star to a struggling quarterback in just a matter of weeks. At the outset of his season, Daniels dazzled fans and analysts alike with incredible statistics: a remarkable 75.3% completion rate, averaging 8.46 yards per attempt, with six touchdown passes, two interceptions, and an additional five rushing touchdowns over his first six games.

The Turning Point

However, everything changed after he suffered a rib injury in Week 7 against the Carolina Panthers. That game, where he only attempted two passes, marked the beginning of his decline. Although the Commanders achieved a dramatic Hail Mary victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 8, Daniels’ performance leading up to that moment was far from impressive—he completed just 20 of 37 passes for 274 yards without a touchdown.

Recent Struggles

Fast forward to the last three games, all losses for the Commanders, Daniels’ stats have plummeted. He has managed to complete only 61.5% of his passes, averaging a dismal 6.42 yards per attempt with three touchdown passes and three interceptions. Signs of distress were evident during the Week 12 loss to the Cowboys, where a staggering 187 of his 275 passing yards were accrued in the last frantic minutes when the team was hopelessly trailing.

Glimmers of Hope

Despite this rough patch, there were glimpses of his former prowess. Daniels showed resilience, especially late in tough games, which is commendable. Nonetheless, Washington's offense has spiraled down to 29th in Expected Points Added per play over the last three weeks, a stark contrast to their earlier performance where they ranked 3rd.

Injury and Performance

Could it be that his injury has stunted his growth, or is there a deeper, more systemic issue at play? With the Commanders clinging to hope of a playoff berth for the first time since 2020, the expectation is that Daniels will be able to rally his skills and lead them forward. But the troubling trend for such a talented rookie serves as a cautionary tale: young quarterbacks often find themselves too dependent on their offensive schemes.

Early Season Success

In those first six games, Washington boasted a respectable rank of 10th in yards after catch (YAC) per reception at 5.6 yards. Notably, Daniels had four receivers among the top 25 in Separation Score, indicating that his targets were frequently available and open. His well-rounded metrics included a 2.9% Big-Time Throw rate, ranking him in the mid-tier, and an impressive 80.5% Adjusted Completion rate, indicating solid performance under pressure.

Defensive Adjustments

Yet, as the season progressed, opposing defenses began to catch on, studying film and making necessary adjustments. As a result, the pressure on Daniels increased, and he faced challenges connecting on difficult throws when the initial options weren’t open. Over the three-game losing streak, his BTT rate remained relatively stable at 2.8%, with an improved ability to protect the football (1.2% turnover-worthy play rate), but his Adjusted Completion rate fell to 73.3% alongside a concerning average depth of target of just 6.1 yards. Moreover, his pressure-to-sack rate jumped significantly to 27.3%, indicating a struggle to perform under duress.

Conclusion

While it’s not a strict requirement for quarterbacks to lead in the league's Big-Time Throw rate to be effective—after all, even elite QBs like Patrick Mahomes sit at 3.0%—it does suggest the necessity for an innovative offensive scheme and reliable receiving talent. Unfortunately for the Commanders, their scheme hasn't proven to be revolutionary, and while the talent among their receivers is decent, it lacks star power. As the Commanders hover at a crucial junction with their hope pinned on the immensely gifted rookie Daniels, the looming question is whether he can elevate the performance of those around him when the offense isn’t designed to highlight his skills. Only time will tell if he can break free from this slump and propel Washington to a playoff appearance or if they will continue their downward spiral. Will the real Jayden Daniels please stand up?